“The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut”

Vor lauter Diskussion zu Brexit, Niedergang Deutschlands und der EU/des Euro auf bto kommt das grundlegende Problem der Weltwirtschaft manchmal zu kurz: die säkulare Stagnation, für mich die Eiszeit in der Weltwirtschaft. Dabei ist diese noch lange nicht überwunden, wie auch die The New York Times festhält:

  • “For much of 2018, it appeared that the world economy was finally getting out of the rut it had been stuck in for the decade since the global financial crisis. But it now looks as if the era of persistently low growth, low inflation and low interest rates isn’t over after all.” – bto: Natürlich ist sie das nicht, weil die Politik die Grundursachen der Krise nicht lösen wollte oder konnte. Es wurde nur mit billigem Geld übertüncht.
  • “Despite some promising signs of vitality during much of last year, issues that have dogged the world economy for the last decade — an aging work force in many of the biggest economies, weak growth in productivity, excessive global savings and industrial capacity, and a shortage of worldwide demand — haven’t disappeared.” – bto: So ist es. Was in der Auflistung fehlt, ist die hohe Verschuldung.
  • “That helps explain why American workers’ wages have been rising relatively slowly despite a low unemployment rate. And it makes for a perilous time: Low growth rates mean the economy could slip into recession more easily, and low interest rates mean central bankers would find themselves with less powerful tools to lessen the pain of a future downturn.” – bto: Das Problem der tiefen Löhne ist dabei ein anderes als das der tiefen Zinsen.
  • “This shows that the forces that are restraining many economies are a lot harder to contend with and more pervasive than many people were hoping or believing, (…) It’s bad news for the work force’s earnings prospects in many countries and for those who hope for a reversal of the growing inequality trend that has been in place for many years.” – bto: Ja, so ist es. Die Notenbanken können nur die Vermögensbesitzer reicher machen.
  • “Consider that markets went haywire in the final weeks of 2018 in significant part because of fears that the Federal Reserve was raising rates by more than the economy could handle. Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, played a big role in fueling a stock market rebound when (…) the Fed would adjust policy ‘quickly and flexibly’ as conditions warranted.” – bto: gefangen in der Politik des billigen Geldes.
  • “His predecessor, Janet Yellen, went so far as to say recently that ‘it’s very possible we may have seen the last interest rate hike of this cycle.’ But what does it mean when a mere 2.4 percent interest rate — the rough level of the Fed’s target after a December increase — is enough to risk breaking the economy?” – bto: Das bedeutet, beim nächsten Mal ist schon ein Zins von null zu hoch. Die Helikopter kommen, egal wie man sie nennt.

→ nytimes.com: “The World Economy Just Can’t Escape Its Low-Growth, Low-Inflation Rut”, 27. Januar 2019