So ist es! Käme es zu einer erneuten Rezession in Europa, dürfte die Eurozone auf massive Probleme zusteuern. Vor allem dann, wenn es Deutschland hart träfe. Denn dann dürfte es der GroKo schwerfallen, unter lautem „Wir sind ein reiches Land“-Gebrülle, die Geldschleusen für die Eurozone zu öffnen. Doch wo stehen wir? Kurz davor, wenn man den Indikatoren glauben darf:
- „Retail sales are falling sharply. Industrial production is slumping. Construction is sluggish and the government is weak and clueless with little idea of how to respond to falling demand. (…) That is actually a description of what is meant to be the eurozone’s strongest economy – Germany.“ – bto: Das wäre keine gute Nachricht für unsere Partner.
- „(…) there are worrying signs the exporting powerhouse at the centre of the eurozone is slowing down sharply. True, it might only be a blip. Then again, that is how most recessions start. If that is what is happening, and the evidence is mounting all the time, then it will be catastrophic for the whole single currency area. No progress has been made on reform, policy responses are limited and electorates are exhausted by austerity. One more downturn might be the last.“ – bto: in der Tat. So sehe ich das auch und es unterstreicht das völlige Versagen auch unserer Politik.
- „Led by a powerful Germany, with France reviving under president Macron, and with a central bank that is still pumping the economy with printed money and near-zero interest rates, production has been rising and joblessness finally falling. Heck, even Italy and Greece have been growing again. Investors have been pouring cash into the continent, and the currency has been soaring, as anyone planning a holiday in France or Spain will quickly discover.“ – bto: Ja, man könnte auf den ersten Blick meinen, es sei eine gute Entwicklung, die noch anhält. Tut sie es nicht, werden die Spannungen sofort wieder zunehmen.
- „There are some suspicious numbers emerging that don’t quite fit that narrative. Start with Germany. This week we learnt retail sales dropped by 0.7pc in February. They have fallen in six of the last eight months and all of the last three. On Friday, industrial production figures showed output down by 1.6pc, the largest monthly fall in three years. Factory orders came in way below expectations this week, with a mere 0.3pc rebound after the 3.5pc drop in January, and construction spending is also down. In fact, the only part of the German economy still expanding is its export industry, but even that is under threat.“ – bto: zu Recht. Uns fällt unsere Exportorientierung auf die Füße!
- „Across the eurozone as a whole, the outlook is not looking much better. Retail sales for the whole region rose a mere 0.1pc in February compared to the 0.5pc forecast. France is especially weak, with retail stagnant, and a nasty 1.9pc fall in household real income for January and for the year as a whole. Over in Italy, there is at least some growth, which is a miracle given its experience of the single currency, but the jobs numbers came in below expectations this month. None of those figures fit the picture of an economy that is booming. In fact they look increasingly like one that is heading into a German-led downturn.“ – bto: Und dann bekommen wir noch stärkeren politischen Druck.
- „In truth, the growth of the last two years has been mostly an illusion. The European Central Bank has chucked 2.2 trillion of freshly printed euros at the economy and slashed interest rates as close to zero as it can possibly get.“ – bto: Genau so ist es! Es war eine echte Illusion, die nun zu platzen droht. Passt zu den Illusionen der Bundesregierung.
- „The eurozone is another Japan. After all, without a strong Germany, the region can’t grow. It accounts for 23pc of the zone’s GDP and has created 38pc of the new jobs in Europe over the last five years. And Germany has stopped expanding.“ – bto: Und unsere Demografie verspricht noch größere Probleme! Wir sind schlechter als Japan.
- „There have been no meaningful reforms to make the single currency work better. Indeed, in the background, the imbalances have grown even worse, with Germany’s shocking trade surplus draining demand from the rest of the continent. The ECB is out of policy responses. The banking system looks in worse shape than ever.“ – bto: obwohl die Politiker uns immer was anderes erzählen. Aber so ist es.
- „(…) a fresh recession may well be terminal. Of course, it may not happen.“ – bto: vielleicht jetzt nicht. Irgendwann aber sicherlich und damit bleibt die Sorge berechtigt.