Ist es nun so weit? Die Anzeichen für eine Rezession bei uns nehmen zu:
- “The economic outlook in Germany is deteriorating with alarming speed and any mistake by policy-makers could push the country into a full-blown slump, a leading economic institute has warned. (…) The Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) early warning indicator said the recession risk over the next three months has jumped suddenly to 32.4pc as trade tensions mount and liquidity ebbsaway in the international financial system.” – bto: Schluss mit dem Märchen vom “reichen Land”.
Quelle: The Telegraph
- “It may be a false alarm but it clearly indicates that global growth is weaker than widely assumed just weeks ago. (…) Germany is heavily reliant on world trade and is therefore a bellwether for the broader health of the global economy. Its industrial sector lurched abruptly from boom to bust early in the last downturn and proved to be a leading indicator for the Great Recession.” – bto: Klar, niemand ist wie wir abhängig von der Zusatzverschuldung in der Welt.
- “Germany is the chief supplier of machine tools and engineering equipment to China. The weakening data dovetails with signs that the Chinese economy has come off the boil since the Communist Party conclave last November. The delayed effect of credit curbs are biting. (…) Proxy measures put together by Capital Economics suggest that the true rate of economic growth in China has dropped to near 4.5pc, a ‚growth recession‘ in Chinese terms and a far cry from the ‚smoothed‘ official figure of 6.6pc.” – bto: Eine Illusion, die wir auf Exporten aufgebaut haben, findet ihr Ende.
- “The Fed is on the warpath. (…) the global money is slowing as quantitative easing goes into reverse, and as the Fed lifts global borrowing costs. Three-month Libor rates have jumped 60 basis points this year, hitting $9 trillion of floating contracts worldwide.” – bto: Das hatten wir schon, ist aber relevant.
- “(…) the global economic slowdown was baked into the pie months ago when the money supply began to falter. (…) six-month real M1 money touched a nine-year low of 1pc in February. (…) This signal tends to lead the economy by around six months, suggesting that the global economy may remain trapped in the doldrums through the second and third quarters.” – bto: Auch entscheidend sind Veränderung und Grenznutzen!
- “It is clear that the eurozone boom in 2017 has fizzled out. There has been a blizzard of disappointing figures on industrial output, retail sales, and business confidence over recent weeks.” – bto: Und damit fällt das Kartenhaus der Politiker in sich zusammen!
- “The European Central Bank faces a treacherous task as it prepares to phase out QE altogether this year (…) Nobody knows for sure how much damage is being caused by this reduction in the “flow” of stimulus, since few can agree intellectually on how QE actually works. The risk is that the ECB could tighten too hard and cause the current soft patch to metastasize into a full-blown downturn.” – bto: Da kann ich nur lachen. Ich denke, die EZB wird gar nicht kürzen, aber schon die Tatsache, dass sie nicht weiter Gas gibt, wird zu Problemen führen.
- “The Powell Fed no longer pays attention to monetary data and seems not to regard QT as significant, despite warnings from former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke that it was safer not to try at all. The Fed is therefore almost certain to keep tightening and keep raising rates until the economy breaks. This is the time-honoured cause of recessions.” – bto: Da bin ich auch nicht so sicher, die Märkte signalisieren ja schon Rezession.
- “The hedge fund CrossBorderCapital said its global liquidity index has dropped to a six-year low of 25.3, nearing levels last seen during the onset of the European banking crisis in 2011.”– bto: was nur beweist, dass man eine Schuldenkrise nicht mit noch mehr Schulden bekämpfen kann.
- “The odds of a serious market correction remain high. Our models have been warning of sharply deteriorating risks from the second quarter of 2018. The latest tariff tensions are not the main issue, because we live in a world dominated by capital flows not trade flows. The next bear market may be underway (…).” – bto: sehr gut möglich! Der Euro überlebt das nicht.