Incrementum sieht Disinflation, nicht Inflation

Das Team um Mark J. Valek und Ronald-Peter Stoeferle bei der Liechtensteiner Incrementum AG ist bekannt für die jährlichen, sehr ausführlichen und fundierten Berichte zum Goldmarkt. In einer kurzen E-Mail-Notiz informieren sie nun darüber, dass der hauseigene Inflationsindikator gedreht hat jedoch nicht, wie breit erwartet, in Richtung Inflation, sondern wieder in Richtung fallender Inflationsraten:

  • “We would like to inform you that the Incrementum Inflation Signal has recently turned to falling inflation momentum!  bto: Das ist in der Tat eine vom Markt abweichende Einschätzung.
  • “This is a very interesting development, as inflation expectations have surged higher recently, particularly since Donald Trump’s acceptance speech. Market developments since the triumph of Trump are quite remarkable and it seems that the election clearly was a game changer. Bond yields surged higher and the US-dollar just made a 14-year high. US equity indices are rising to new highs despite the strong US dollar. On the back side of these developments, precious metals have been losing ground.” bto: Das mit dem Game Changer habe ich bekanntlich auch geschrieben. Es könnte aber sehr gut sein, dass sich der Game Change mehr auf die Erwartungen als die Realität bezieht, weil der Zinsanstieg die Realität verhindert.
  • “Reagan’s expansion from 1982 to 1989 was the greatest, consistent burst of economic activity ever seen in the US. However, there is a fundamental flaw in this comparison between the situations of Reagan and that of Trump. The Reagan boom took place AFTER the peak of inflation and yields! Falling inflation and falling interest rates provided a great framework for an upswing. This time around the opposite holds true!” bto: Mit Reagan begann der Assetboom, angefacht von immer tieferen Zinsen und tiefer Inflation dank der Globalisierung. 

    Source: Fed St. Louis, Incrementum AG
  • The current upward momentum in yields has the potential to choke off the recovery or – perhaps even more likely – provoke havoc in other regions of the world (particularly in emerging markets or in the euro area). Especially countries or corporations which are relying either on low interest rates or on a  low US dollar are vulnerable. Historically sharply rising interest rates and/or a rising US dollar often triggered financial calamities overseas. Repercussions for financial markets and the US economy would be highly likely.” – bto: Siehe auch meine diesbezüglichen Kommentare bei der
  • “Moreover,  higher inflation rates might be very bad news for the US-economy, as rising inflation often preceded recessions.” bto: was diese Abbildung unterstreicht.
    Source: Fed St. Louis, Incrementum AG
  • We interpret the new Inflation Signal as a cautionionary sign and see an increased probability for a “risk-off” move, i.e. asset price deflation. As long as there is no obvious warning sign sent rom financial markets (especially US stock markets), the Federal Reserve will have to follow the direction of bond yields and increase their hawkish bias! We could imagine a sharp reversal of this move after an eclipse of US dollar strength and a spike in equity volatility in the coming months.  bto: Mit   dieser Annahme sind sie nicht alleine. Wir bekämen noch tiefere Zinsen und unbedingt die Helikopter.
  • “As long as this momentum higher US yields accompanied by a stronger US dollar continues, we are concentrating  on positions for EUR-Inflation! We have reduced our positions in mining equities and implemented stop loss limits on all other inflation sensitive asset classes as well as increased short EUR positions.” bto: Das ist konsistent.

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