“French watchdog fears ‘brutal correction’ for world stock markets”

Die Warnungen werden lauter und offizieller. Natürlich auch, um hinterher nicht wieder dumm dazustehen oder – wie vermutlich in diesem Fall – Munition für die politische Agenda der eigenen Regierung zu schaffen. Dennoch ist es interessant, dass ausgerechnet die Franzosen offiziell vor der nächsten Finanzkrise warnen:

  • “France’s market watchdog is bracing for a surge in global bond yields and a Wall Street crash as soon as this year, fearing that contagion will spread to Europe and snuff out the fragile recovery. The world has never been so indebted – even more than before the 2007 crisis – and this debt has never been so risky, said the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in its annual report.” – bto: abgeschrieben bei der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich, aber was soll es.
  • The number one risk for 2018 is a brutal correction of stock prices. The current valuation levels look high both by historical standards, and in fundamental terms across a whole range of indicators, starting with American equities. Any correction there would most likely spread to other stock markets, it said. The market capitalisation of world bourses rose 18pc last year to $82.5 trillion (£62 trillion).” – bto: Aber es ist ja nur ein Symptom bzw. eine Folge der Politik der letzten Jahre. Außerdem sind die Märkte schon lange teuer.
  • “Any number geopolitical triggers could set off a scramble for safety, from the Italian drama to a cliff-edge Brexit.The denouement might equally come from a jump in inflation as US fiscal stimulus – at the top of the cycle – drives up oil prices and unleashes inflation. The sheer level of  speculative debt would amplify the effects of a cyclical downturn.” – bto: Es ist, wie immer wieder gesagt, eine hoch-geleveragte Realwirtschaft, die wiederum von einem hoch-geleveragten Finanzsektor hochgejubelt wird.
  • “The Faustian Pact of easy money since the Lehman crisis is closing on the developed economies. Expansionary monetary policies have encouraged investors to hunt for yield by buying higher-yielding securities from lower-rated issuers whose solvency could be called into question quickly if rates rise or the macroeconomic environment worsens. The AMF said the question for Europe is what will happen if a US asset crash or an emerging market crisis sets off a fresh global recession, before the eurozone has built up an adequate safety buffer against deflationary forces.” – bto: Auch das ist klar. Es wird knallen, weil der Euro eine Schönwetterkonstruktion ist. Die EZB wird wie noch nie alles aufkaufen und die Target-Salden explodieren. Aber politisch ist es offen. Solange die Politik mitmacht, geht das Spiel weiter.
  • “The warning was echoed on Thursday by Clemens Fuest, head of Germany’s IFO Institute. (…) The eurozone remains highly vulnerable to the next downturn. If nothing is done, it is going to be a very negative scenario, with massive bailouts and massive costs for Germany. Political conflict will get a lot worse and it has the potential to completely destroy the eurozone, he told the Munich Economic Conference on Thursday.” – bto: So ist es. Was zur Frage führt, warum er keine sinnvollen Vorschläge macht, dies zu verhindern. Stattdessen unterschreibt er den Blödsinn von Fratscher und Co.
  • Italy, Portugal, Spain, and France have no fiscal space, or almost none, and if we go into the next crisis with debts levels anywhere near the current levels this is going to end something close to Greece. We can’t go the way of Japan. Debt levels can’t get to 200pc of GDP because we are not Japan, he said.” – bto: warum nicht? Ich denke, natürlich können und werden wir!
  • ‚(…) actors must prepare for a no-deal scenario, a hard Brexit on March 29 2019, and develop appropriate contingency plans, it said. It warned of business continuity risks for financial services. Loss of EU passporting rights for British firms means that they will not be authorised to carry out the normal procedures that go with the life of a derivatives contract – novation, position roll, compression, etc. It cited a potential snarl-up in euro clearing and central data repositories.” – bto: was Brüssel nicht hindert den Kreuzzug fortzusetzen.
  • “The comments suggest that the AMF remains insouciant about the acute risks for Europe – as well as Britain – if the transition is mishandled. Mark Carney, the Bank of England’s Governor, warned last month that £29 trillion of derivatives and interest rate swaps face chaos unless urgent measures are taken. The EU has told the banks to sort out the problem themselves, but this is impossible without a legal framework. This cannot be solved by the private sector, he said.” – bto: Wenn das stimmt, kann man nur noch entsetzt sein über die Macher in Brüssel.
  • “Karin Dohm from Deutsche Bank and Alan Houmann from Citigroup – both experts on regulatory risks from Brexit – told a Brussels forum in late May that talks with EU officials had been a bitter disappointment. Brussels did not seem to be interested in contract continuity. In conversations with the European Commission we get a very strong sense that they think it’s not our problem. Well, it is their problem, said Mr Houmann. Hopefully common sense will come into play.” – bto: wow.

Da haben wir es: ein hoch fragiles System, an dem verschiedene Idioten an verschiedenen Stellen herumbasteln.

→ The Telegraph: “French watchdog fears ‘brutal correction’ for world stock markets”, 6. Juli 2018