So ist es. Der Handelskrieg dürfte erst in der nächsten Rezession richtig losgehen. Diese wird aber – wie wir gesehen haben in der letzten Woche – eher aus Europa kommen, und zwar verstärkt durch die dann wohl immer offensichtlichere Krise des Euro. Die Washington Post kommentiert:
- “Almost anywhere you look these days, the economic news is heartening. The United States has rock-bottom unemployment and above-normal growth. China has tamed its crazy trade surplus and is starting to tackle its excessive debt. Europe and Japan are out of the doldrums. Across the world, 120 countries, accounting for three-quarters of global gross domestic product, saw growth accelerate in 2017.” – bto: Wir haben letzte Woche schon die ersten Abkühlungszeichen gesehen.
- “How might political dysfunction derail economic expansion? To many in the United States, the escalating trade fight with China looks like the obvious answer. But for now, that fight is mostly just rhetorical — nearly all the tariffs that both sides have laid out don’t take effect until some unspecified future. (…) In Europe, on the other hand, the obvious danger lies elsewhere.” – bto: Es ist breit. Politisches und wirtschaftliches Versagen.
- “Europe’s predicament reflects an earlier time in which politics and economics became unhinged from one another. In the euphoria following the Cold War, pro-globalization, anti-nationalist, utopian statesmen cooked up the idea of a single currency for Europe. They ignored the economic obstacles, including the reality that a single currency and a single interest rate are unlikely to serve a territory as large and varied as Europe. The monetary policy that suits Germany at any given time probably won’t be the one that happens also to suit Italy or Ireland. To manage this problem, you need large budgetary transfers from booming areas to depressed ones. You also need central insurance against banking crises in weak countries.” – bto: Mich verblüfft, wie mantrahaft das erzählt wird, obwohl wir doch wissen, dass es nicht gehen kann!
- “The United States has both these stabilizers. It also has higher labor mobility: If one state experiences a downturn, its workers can go to another state without facing linguistic barriers. But Europe is stuck in the middle of the road. The countries of the euro zone have a single central bank but multiple budgets and deposit-insurance schemes. As the old Texas saying goes, the only thing you’ll find in the middle of the road is a dead armadillo.” – bto: In den USA sind es aber private Kapitalströme, die lokale Krisen abfedern.
- “European economists have proposed multiple ways to fix the monetary union. But they can’t get past a political fact: Rich countries of the north don’t want to underwrite the precarious ones on the periphery, which they regard as irresponsible. The rising tide of populist nationalism has deepened the northerners’ tight-fistedness. Recently, a bloc of eight hawkish northern states made clear its opposition to a “transfer union.” In Germany, the surge of the xenophobic Alternative for Germany party has narrowed the government’s scope for solidarity with the periphery.” – bto: Ich finde, es ist eine bedenkliche Tendenz, dass wer gegen Transfers ist, mit den Nazis gleichgesetzt wird. Hier nur indirekt, in Deutschland immer offener.
- “But the worst news comes from Italy. (…) Even though Italy’s government debt is already off the charts, the populists support a ruinously expensive universal basic income and a rolling back of pension reform. Indeed, their irresponsibility extends further: More than a month after the vote, they continue to bicker about the shape of the next government.” – bto: Natürlich kommt die Gefahr aus Italien, und zwar zu Recht.
- “Europe’s monetary fragility, too obvious to deny, means the region will at least pretend to do something. France’s president is keen to see progress, and some German leaders support him. But Italy looks less deserving of trust and assistance than it has in a long time.” – bto: was unsere Politiker im Zuge der Selbstaufgabe mitmachen werden …
Fazit Washington Post: “Maybe Trump is reckless enough to tank the world economy with a trade war. But the political risk looks higher in Europe. Remember the armadillos.” – bto: So ist es!