Der unbeachtete Crash

Es ist in der Tat interessant: Der Zinsanstieg der letzten Monate hat einen erheblichen Crash zur Folge gehabt – und es interessiert keinen. Die Anleihenkurse haben teilweise über 50 Prozent verloren. Es ist keine Schlagzeile wert. Dabei ist es eher verwunderlich, dass es noch nicht auf den gesamten Finanzmarkt übergegriffen hat.

Der Telegraph greift das Thema auf:

  • „(…)when issued less than two years ago, the March 2073 Index-Linked Gilt was priced at around £330 per unit of stock; the current price is just £62, or less than a fifth of its value when initially sold.“ – bto: Das ist natürlich ein extremes Beispiel.
  • „The effect has been to transform a negative yield of 2.5pc into a positive one of 1.13pc. What possessed the original buyers to pay such an inflated price is anyone’s guess. Even when issued, it was obvious that there was a serious bout of inflation on the way. The answer, I suppose, is that if God had not wanted them sheared, he would not have created sheep. Years of ultra-low interest rates had conditioned investors to think rates would remain low forever. Any inflation would be transitory, they assumed.“ – bto: Man sieht aber auch, wie ein geringer Anstieg einen erheblichen Impact auf den Preis einer Anleihe hat, vor allem wenn diese eine lange Laufzeit hat.
  • „In the past week, the bond market sell-off has reignited anew, fed by the idea that though interest rates may now have peaked, central banks are likely to hold them at elevated levels for longer than previously thought. (…) If this had been the equity or housing market, today’s ongoing crash would regularly have been front page news, yet outside the cognoscenti of finance, it’s been barely noticed.“ – bto: Und das ist wirklich erstaunlich!
  • „Yet the collapse in values also serves as a powerful reminder that there is no such thing as ‚a risk-free asset‘, an idea that nevertheless continues to underpin government bond markets and is the only reason investors buy into them in the first place.“ – bto: Auch dem ist nur zuzustimmen.
  • Und dann die entscheidende Frage: „(…) you’d expect greater carnage after such a correction. The Financial Stability Board’s Klaas Knot recently launched a probe into the potential vulnerabilities, but it may already be too late.And so to the $64 trillion question. Has the bond market rout now largely run its course? The answer depends on the future trajectory of inflation.“ – bto: Wo gibt es den Unfall?
  • „Markets continue to bet heavily on the idea of a ‚soft landing‘, or a steady reduction in inflation back to target but without a significant increase in unemployment or reduction in output. Historically, this hardly ever occurs. Almost invariably, central banks overdo the tightening and end up collapsing the economy.“ – bto: … oder des kollabierenden Bondmarktes.
  • „Remember the Volcker Rule: the only guarantee of price stability is that interest rates are always higher than the rate of inflation. That’s what normality should look like, not the zero-interest rate environment of the pre-pandemic decade.“ – bto: Die Rechnung für diese Zeit bekommen wir noch präsentiert… „The giant asset price crash that nobody is talking about“, 4. Oktober 2023