Den Märkten schmeckt die US-Verschuldung nicht
„The bond vigilantes are back“ ist ein Kommentar in der FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) betitelt. Die „Bond-Vigilanten“ sind Investoren, die auf steigende Risiken – zum Beispiel wegen nicht nachhaltigen Staatsfinanzen – mit dem Verkauf von Anleihen, damit also einer Zinssteigerung reagieren.
Genau das scheint sich mit Blick auf die US-Schulden zu ereignen:
- „I first wrote about the bond vigilantes on July 27 1983 as follows: ‚So if the fiscal and monetary authorities won’t regulate the economy, the bond investors will. The economy will be run by vigilantes in the credit markets. Currently, monetary policy has been on the right course, with the Federal Reserve focusing on fighting inflation, which soared in 2021 and 2022 after Yellen’s Treasury department provided a third round of pandemic relief cheques to millions of Americans in early 2021. That fuelled a consumer buying binge that was already under way in response to the first two rounds of cheques under the Trump administration during 2020. The buying binge caused prices to soar.‘“ – bto: Das ist eine ganz klare fiskalische Inflation.
- „(…) the Biden administration succeeded in enacting fiscal spending programmes that significantly worsened the projections for the federal budget over the next 10 years. (…) This year, inflation caused the government’s outlays on social security to rise more rapidly since they are indexed to inflation. More worrisome is that the Fed’s interest rate increases in response to inflation are causing the Treasury’s outlays on net interest to soar. Meanwhile, tax revenues have turned down following last year’s temporary windfall. So the federal deficit has ballooned to $2tn over the past 12 months through August.“ – bto: 2.000 Milliarden Dollar Defizit, rund acht Prozent vom Bruttoinlandsprodukt, werden erwartet.
- „In recent weeks, the bond vigilantes have been challenging Yellen’s policies by raising bond yields to levels that threaten to create a debt crisis. In this scenario, higher yields crowd out the private sector and trigger a credit crunch and a recession. Since the root cause of the problem is profligate fiscal policy, the government would have to cut outlays and boost taxes to placate the bond vigilantes, which would exacerbate the recession.“ – bto: Das ist doch mal ein interessantes Szenario. Die Zinsen steigen wegen des Defizits, das führt zu einem höheren Defizit, was zu noch höheren Zinsen führt. Das wiederum zwingt zu Sparmaßnahmen, die dann die Wirtschaft in die Rezession stürzen und Defizit und Schuldenquoten weiter erhöhen. Das ist ein spannendes Szenario, vor allem wenn dann noch die FED wieder Anleihen kaufen muss, um dem Staat zu helfen…
- „Bond yields rose along with the federal funds rate until the summer of 2022, when the yield curve inverted as the bond yield rose less rapidly than the federal funds rate. In the past, an inverted yield curve signalled that bond investors anticipated that if the Fed continued to raise short-term rates, something would break in the financial system resulting in a widespread credit crunch and recession. (…) But the yield curve started to disinvert in June, with the bond yield rising faster than the federal funds rate as the bond vigilantes became increasingly alarmed and animated about profligate fiscal policy.“ – bto: Es ist also kein Zeichen, dass die Inflation besiegt ist und es eine weiche Landung gibt, sondern ein Zeichen, dass es Sorgen gibt bezüglich der Staatsfinanzen der USA.
- „The bond yield has gone vertical in recent weeks, jumping to 4.80 per cent on Tuesday. If it continues to soar up to 5 per cent or higher, Yellen should meet Biden to explain that the bond vigilantes are about to trigger a crisis that could derail his chances of winning another term.“ – bto: Und eine Rezession macht es auch nicht wahrscheinlicher.
→ ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „The bond vigilantes are back“, 4. Oktober 2023
