Auch von anderer Seite kommen Warnungen zu China. Diesmal vom Chairman der größten staatlichen „Bad Bank“ Chinas, der einen wahren Run auf schlechte Kredite erlebt. Dort steigen Investoren ein, die offensichtlich die Risiken nicht beurteilen können, wie die FT berichtet:
- “Bubbles in credit and real estate have led to a steady flow of bad debt in China for years. But now a bubble is forming in the market for the bad loans themselves, says the chairman of China’s largest state-controlled ‚bad bank‘. Banks in China are dealing with an onslaught of non-performing loans that have resulted from poor risk controls and years of loose monetary policy.” – bto: Das ist natürlich schon cool. Die Spekulation mit zweifelhaften Immobilien genügt nicht. Nein, man muss auch noch mit den faulen Krediten selbst spekulieren. Auf was? Rettung durch den Staat?
- “Investors estimate that China’s stock of bad debt has risen to $3tn this year, in step with a decelerating economy. One prominent analyst said recently that the figure could be as high as $6.8tn. As the pool of bad assets rises, so too has the number of Chinese investors willing to chase after bad debt portfolios.” – bto: Voraussetzung: Man weiß, was man tut und hat deshalb mehr Insights.
- „But many of the newcomers had little experience investing in distressed debt and were pushing up prices for the assets at auctions, (…). ‚If you don’t understand the market for bad assets or asset restructuring and merging, for non-professionals there is big risk. Over the past three years, competition from new investors had pushed the price up by at least 10 per cent, he said, calling for more regulatory oversight of the market.‘” – bto: nicht gesund!
- “The influx of new buyers had mainly been seen in large cities as they attempted to get in on highly publicised auctions (…) in what seem to be prices that don’t account for the time or risks (…).” – bto: was die Risiken in einem Abschwung naturgemäß noch weiter erhöht.
- “China has experienced steady deregulation in how distressed debt is bought and sold since the industry was launched 18 years ago. Huarong, along with three other centrally controlled asset managers, was created by the ministry of finance in 1999 to absorb perilously high levels of bad debt from China’s largest commercial banks. At the time, the government directed banks to transfer $1.4tn to the four groups. Since then, the asset managers have greatly expanded their businesses in China and globally, operating more like investment banks than bad debt investors.” – bto: wie schon vor Jahren an dieser Stelle beschrieben. Schuldenwirtschaft nach westlichem Vorbild!