“Can Germany survive the ‚iPhone moment‘ for cars?”

Sobald ich die deutsche Automobilindustrie diskutiere, ist mir Kritik sicher. Ich verstünde nun mal gar nichts davon, ist die gängige Kritik, so auch zu lesen in den Kommentaren zu meinem Mission-Money-Interview. Dabei mache ich nur das, was ich heute auch mache. Ich zitiere anderen Quellen. Die FT fragt: “Can Germany survive the ‚iPhone moment‘ for cars?” – nicht schlecht. Schauen wir uns die Argumentation an:

  • The significance of the iPhone when it was launched in 2007 was not that it was a better phone, a superior camera or an improved MP3 player. Nor was it the touch screen, wide display or range of apps. It was all of these things in one device (…).” – bto: Und nicht wenige Leute erinnern sich noch gut an ihr erstes.
  • The ‚iPhone moment‘ for cars has not happened yet, but it is easy to imagine what it will look like: an electric, self driving living room on wheels‘, securely connected to the web and more often shared among users rather than bought.” – bto: Und es wird vielleicht auch fliegen können …
  • “It might not be clear yet who will build it, but the market is certain about one thing, it will not be the Germans. (…) there is even some question whether Das Auto will survive such an industry transformation. Big carmakers are valued like they will soon be bankrupt, says Max Warburton, analyst at Bernstein. The stocks are telling us a mighty recession is coming — but only in the auto industry. Not in the wider economy.” – bto: Und das ist eine entscheidende Nachricht, eine sehr klare Nachricht des Marktes. Und wenn sie stimmt, ist das für Deutschland ein Desaster.
  • “(…) each week is bringing negative developments for the industry. Vehicle registrations in the EU plummeted last month when new emission standards took effect, while diesel bans are threatened from London to Prague. Protectionist sentiment and Brexit are bringing new uncertainties to a sector heavily reliant on global supply chains for their “just in time” manufacturing.” – bto: Klar ist, dass auch hinter vielen Auflagen protektionistische Tendenzen stecken. Bei uns in Deutschland kommt noch der unbedingte Selbstzerstörungswille dazu.
  • The developments come on top of myriad challenges facing the carmakers as they invest big sums into battery technology and autonomous software, all the while trying to maintain the value of their brands as consumers think more about dashboard apps and less about horsepower.” – bto: Die junge Generation hat ohnehin nicht mehr so viel Lust auf Autos.  
  • “In most global cities, diesel bans are little more than a point for discussion. In Germany, however, a federal court initiated a domino effect in February when it sided with environmental groups and said the bans were an effective way to clean the air in the 70 German cities that are in breach of EU pollution laws.” – bto: der bekannte Wahnsinn.
  • “(…) in the escalating trade war between the US and China, BMW and Daimler are, ironically, most at risk because (…)  they invested heavily in Trump country: South Carolina and Alabama. BMW exports more than 70 per cent of its US-made vehicles, with more than 100,000 of them exported to China last year. Now they are subject to 40 per cent tariffs, threatening the $11.6bn automotive trade surplus the US enjoys with China (…).” – bto: was natürlich deshalb ärgerlich ist, weil die Hersteller extra in den USA investiert haben, um auch die Wechselkurse natürlich zu hedgen. Wenn Trump jetzt auch noch die Importe aus Deutschland bestraft, sind sie mehrfach gekniffen.
  • The threats facing the German car industry could be existential, according to Herbert Diess, chief executive of Volkswagen. (…) politicians were spending too much effort legislating the automotive industry and creating unreasonable emissions standards, while turning a blind eye to the possibility that it could result in 100,000 job losses at VW.” – bto: Ach, kein Problem. Bei uns fällt das Geld doch vom Himmel, wenn nicht, erhöhen wir endlich mal wieder die Steuern.
  • “(…) headline figures suggest that the German car industry is robust and healthy. (…) 5.5m cars rolled off the country’s production lines last year, with 78 per cent of them made for export. Around the world, the country’s brands are likely to produce a record 16m cars this year — about one-fifth of global sales and two-thirds of all higher-margin premium cars, where innovation is central. A third of global automotive research and development takes place in Germany, home to more than 800 suppliers. (…)  an internationally peerless automotive environment.” – bto: Und statt das zu loben und stolz auf diese Leistung zu sein, befördern wir vorsätzlich den Niedergang.
  • But it is based on a product, combustion engine cars, that could cease to exist within a single generation. The engineering skills that have set German cars apart from the pack are likely to lose importance relative to software and imported batteries. And its strengths, from engine knowhow to world-class factories, could turn into a weaknessas the industry undergoes a radical shift.” – bto: weil man auf riesigen Kapazitäten sitzt, die man nicht mehr braucht. Ich kenne kein Beispiel, wo alte Anbieter eine solche Revolution bewältigt haben.
  • “If the shift to electric happens quickly, production assets in Germany could turn into expensive liabilities. The lights could go out at numerous suppliers who play a critical role providing about three-quarters of the content inside any given vehicle. (…) It’s a different supply chain. So far this new supply chain has been outsourced to Asia, where China controls more than two-thirds of the battery market. Europe’s global share of existing and planned battery production capacity is a mere 4 percent (…). – bto: Damit haben wir die Kompetenzen für die Zukunft nicht.
  • “Electric cars are currently unprofitable, whereas selling combustion engine cars to a booming China and elsewhere has been very lucrative. (…) If the shift to battery cars is counted in decades, not years, as many analysts expect, then the Germans still have time to change focushaving had a chance to observe what works and what does not.” – bto: Das wirft die entscheidenden Fragen auf: a) Haben wir die Zeit? b) Können wir sie nutzen? c) Nutzen wir sie?
  • “In the US, Tesla outsold Mercedes and BMW in the passenger car category. Globally, Tesla deliveries including cars and SUVs were lower than both, but they were double that of Jaguar and almost 20,000 higher than Porsche, (…) German carmakers have responded with ambitious plans to make certain factories able to churn out electric cars en masse over the coming decade. Volkswagen alone says it will build 150,000 electric cars in 2020 while the multi-brand group including Porsche and Audi will spend €72bn by 2030 on EV technology (…) But as of yet, there is little to rival the Tesla models.” – bto: Und es ist ja mehr als “nur” Elektro.
  • “(…) the German strategy is to produce as many electrified and hybrid plug-in vehicles as are required by law— rather than desired. It’s compliance hell rather than production hell‹,’ he says. They don’t want to sell them; they have to sell them.In China and the US, where German carmakers have less need for compliance vehicles‹, their sales of electrified models are lagging. Globally, not a single German EV model makes it on to the top 10 list dominated by Tesla, Nissan, and Chinese producer BYD.” – bto: das typische Verhalten des Verteidigers. Er möchte so lange wie möglich das alte Produkt verkaufen, weil er damit Geld verdient. So verliert er aber den Wettkampf um die Zukunft.  
  • “(…) there is little question that the Germans can build great EVs — they just choose not to, citing high battery costs and poor infrastructure. (…) If the market is betting on someone building the iPhone on wheels, it is Tesla. VW has a market value of €6,500 for every car it sells; for Tesla the figure is €235,000 (…).” – bto: wobei man bei Tesla schon sagen muss, dass es noch lange nicht ausgemacht ist, dass sie gewinnen bzw. überleben.

Quelle: FT