bto 2018: Protektionismus bleibt ein Thema

Ist das Wachstum schwach, drücken die Schulden, was liegt näher als der Versuch, die eigene Wirtschaft über Protektionismus zu stärken? Seit 2009 ist die Zahl der protektionistischen Eingriffe weltweit deutlich gestiegen. Mit der (unweigerlichen) nächsten Rezession wird das Thema deutlich an Gewicht gewinnen.

Derweil arbeitet Donald Trump an der Umsetzung seiner letztlich protektionistisch wirkenden Steuerreform. Die FT diskutiert:

  • “One of the many ways in which it is bad, is the way it treats international economic activity. Consider first the unconscionable tax holiday granted to US multinationals “repatriating” past profits made abroad. (…) many companies have chosen to wait in the hope of a lighter treatment. That hope is now on the cusp of being fulfilled, as the Republican plan is to tax this money at only about 14 per cent, less than half the rate under existing rules. (…)  this may amount to a windfall of $47bn for just one company: Apple.” bto: Das könnte man ja noch verwinden. Wobei es natürlich dumm ist, Unternehmen, die schon heute nicht wissen, wohin mit dem Geld, noch mehr Geld zu geben. Eigentlich müssten die mehr Steuern zahlen.
  • “The plan also reforms business taxation of multinationals going forward, by removing the standard corporate tax liability for foreign profits altogether in what is known as a “territorial system” combined with an alternative minimum tax. (…) because of the way the minimum tax is calculated, a company can effectively use physical investment and production abroad to offset any US tax on intangible profits in low-tax jurisdictions. The reform, in other words, creates an incentive to move real activity to other jurisdictions, even those with middling corporate tax rates. That is not, to put it mildly, what Donald Trump has promised.” bto: Das wäre ja noch nicht so schlimm.
  • “(…) the congressional tax plans contain provisions crudely aimed at promoting exports, including an excise tax on cross-border purchases. The finance ministers of the five biggest European economies havewritten to Washington to complain: export subsidies are after all illegal under international trade law. Even if they pass legal muster, it is hard to see such provisions as anything else than moves in the direction of a trade war. In any case, they are designed to make cross-border supply chains costlier.” bto: Und da haben wir dann genau die protektionistische Wirkung.

“That may be precisely what the Trump administration wants. It is torn between two different protectionist impulses: to bully others into taking more US exports — which would expand overall trade — and to retrench back behind national borders by importing less — which would shrink trade flows. The latter, the economic nationalists, seem to be winning. If not resisted, they may well succeed in reversing the integration of supply chains with other economies.” bto: und damit ein weiterer Schritt in die Richtung Handelskrieg. Mehr kommt 2018 …

FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): “A US tax plan for economic nationalism”, 13. Dezember 2017