BCG: Ausgaben für Inno­vationen müssen deutlich steigen

Bekanntlich denke ich, dass unser Anspruch sein sollte, den CO2-Ausstoß der Welt um zehn Prozent zu senken und nicht nur um unseren Anteil von zwei Prozent. Das geht über Innovation und nicht über Verzicht und würde übrigens das Versprechen erfüllen, Klimaschutz und Wohlstand zu kombinieren.

Worum es geht, zeigen meine Ex-Kollegen in einem Paper. Auszüge:

  • „As of today, 191 countries have ratified the Paris Climate Agreement, and more than 50% of world GDP is generated by countries that have made net-zero pledges. (…) But getting there will take a lot of work. Annual global emissions of carbon dioxide equivalents amount to about 51 gigatons. We estimate that existing technologies can eliminate about 25% of current emissions, and technologies in early adoption can address another 40%. This leaves approximately 35% of current annual emissions, for which we need new technologies if we are to achieve net zero.“ – bto: Das gilt erst recht für ein Land mit so schlechten Voraussetzungen für Erneuerbare Energien wie Deutschland und für ein Land, das wie kein anderes außer Japan vom Nimbus seiner Ingenieure lebt!
  • „Climate innovation is a huge opportunity to create value. There is clear evidence that countries can build a sustainable competitive advantage, as China and South Korea did in the last decade with photovoltaic (PV) cells and batteries, respectively.
  • „Investment totaled about $30 billion in 2019 and $37 billion in 2020. But this is not nearly enough. Separate analyses by BCG and the Global Financial Markets Association (GFMA) on global climate finance requirements lead us to estimate that the world is between $90 billion and $210 billion short of the yearly investments in climate-altering technology needed to achieve net zero.“ – bto: Ich frage mich, ob die Milliarden, die wir aufwenden wollen, für Forschung und Entwicklung nicht besser aufgehoben wären.
  • Public funds are needed to meet these targets. The barriers to private investment, which include uncertain returns, lack of a demonstrable track record, and lengthy time frames to payback, are too high for many investors (…) Plenty of advanced technological R&D requires governments to support and promote basic research while helping build the infrastructure and defining standards needed to undergird a more resilient distributed industrial base. This includes work in technologies that harness nature’s design principles and manufacturing capabilities to design and operate at the atomic level of organic and inorganic matter.“ – bto: Das stimmt und ist auch nicht im Widerspruch zu meiner sonstigen Haltung. Es handelt sich um echte Grundlagenforschung.
  • „For proof of what governments can achieve, look to the US, where the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) has produced such major technological innovations as the internet and GPS by thinking big and taking chances. Or to China and South Korea. China’s subsidies for photovoltaic technology drove down the cost of solar energy dramatically. PV solar panel costs fell 80% from 2008 to 2013, and global installed PV capacity increased 14-fold from 2010 to 2019. China is now the leading PV producer. South Korea’s investment in battery technology supported key breakthroughs, leading lithium-ion battery costs to drop nearly 90% from 2010 to 2019. South Korean battery producers took a leading market share in 2013.“ – bto: Dass auch Deutschland Milliarden in die Solartechnologie investiert hat, sollte uns zu denken geben.
  • „The climate investment cycle includes three broad phases: research and development, validation and early deployment, and large-scale deployment. (…) In the first phase, mission-driven R&D grant programs with a clear and focused strategy and lean processes can provide a critical push. (…) Funding in the second stage—validation and early deployment—typically involves public-private partnerships or co-investment with venture capital and private equity funds to increase the money available for high-impact, high-risk companies. (…) In the growth funding third stage, governments can offer matching grants that amplify the impact of private investors in support of large-scale deployment, thereby incentivizing institutional investors and corporations to put money into climate innovation funds.“ – bto: All dies ist nun nicht wirklich “rocket sience”. Aber es zeigt auf, wie man intelligente Klimapolitik macht, die die Ziele wirklich erreicht: den Klimaschutz und die Sicherung von Wohlstand.
  • Natürlich haben meine Kollegen auch das Buch von Marianna Mazzucato gelesen: „First governments should adopt a mission-driven approach to climate investment. This means adhering to four requirements:
    • Missions should be well defined. Investments should be based on detailed definitions of technological challenges, goals and deliverables, including processes for monitoring and accountability.
    • Missions should comprise a portfolio of R&D or innovation projects for each technology challenge. R&D (especially early-stage) is highly uncertain and requires policymakers to accept failures and use them as learning experiences without punishing stakeholders for defeats derived from good-faith efforts.
    • Missions should result in investment across sectors and involve different types of actors.
    • Missions require integrated policymaking. Priorities need to be translated into concrete policy instruments and actions carried out at all levels of the public institutions involved, with a clear and strategic division of labor among them.
  • Using a mission-driven approach, governments should assess their domestic climate innovation needs. Governments can then select investment areas by analyzing available opportunities based on their impact (financial and climate), policy or regulatory tailwinds, and market attractiveness (technology maturity, funding gaps, and general barriers).”
  • “In our analysis of how the private sector can most effectively pursue climate innovation opportunities, we developed a matrix of four areas of effort, which we call the climate innovation solutions canvas. Combining the canvas with the three country criteria provides a means for governments to target their climate investments. For example, large industrial nations, which have the most relevant options, need new technologies, including high-risk breakthrough approaches. This points their investments toward backing the invent and reboot quadrants of the canvas. They can also provide funding and ecosystem support for scaling up technologies in the re-imagine and re-engineer categories, prioritizing the most promising investment opportunities.” – bto: Übersetzt für unsere Politiker, es geht nicht um Beschränkung, Verbote und Lastenfahrräder, es geht um Innovation. Ist auch klar, weil wir es können und die Alternative kein Vorbild für andere Länder ist.
  • „More money is a big part of the solution, but the funds must be well targeted and effectively invested. Governments that want to have an impact—and reap the accompanying economic benefits—will start to develop their climate innovation funding plans now.“ – bto: Danke, so ist es und es ist furchtbar, dass bei uns diejenigen das Sagen haben, die denken, es ginge nur über Verzicht statt über Innovation. 

mkt-bcg-com-public-pdfs: „Governments That Invest in Climate Innovation Invest in Growth”, 21. Juli 2021