Heute Morgen hatten wir den Originalton, nun ein Auszug aus den letzten “strategic perspectives” von Edwards, wiedergegeben bei zerohedge.com. Auslöser war die deutliche Korrektur der Sparquote der US-Amerikaner:
- “(…) the Bureau of Economic Analysis (…) revised historical personal incomes lower, while adjusting its estimates of personal spending much higher, resulting in a sharp decline in personal savings, which as a result, was slashed from 5.5% according to the pre-revised data, to just 3.8%, in one excel calculation wiping out 30% of America’s “savings”, and cutting them by a quarter trillion dollars in the process, from $791 billion to $546 billion, a level last seen just before the last US recession.” – bto: Die US-Zahlen sind traditionell von schwacher Qualität und werden oft korrigiert.
- “Albert Edwards, commented (…) that contrary to previous conventional wisdom that US consumers had been hunkering down in recent years and saving up for a rainy day, the surge in spending in late 2016 may have been the only catalyst that prevented the US from collapsing into outright contraction. Edwards also reminds us that such a dramatic savings slump last occurred in 2007, just before all hell broke loose.“ – bto: Klartext: Die Konsumenten mussten weniger sparen, sonst hätte es die Rezession schon gegeben. Sie haben nicht auf fallende/weniger steigende Einkommen mit Ausgabeneinschränkungen reagiert.
- “This was last seen in 2007, just before the bursting debt bubble blew the global economy and financial system to smithereens. The Fed and BoE should surely hang their heads in shame having presided over yet another impending disaster. Why will politicians and the people tolerate this incompetence? Indeed they won’t.”
- “QE has not only inflated corporate debt to grotesque levels, but finally the US SR has responded to the surge in household paper wealth that QE has produced (see chart below). Typically the SR always declines (shown as a rise in the chart below) with rising wealth. Why do you need to bother saving if interest rates are close to zero and house and stock prices are rising?” – bto: eine wirklich berechtigte Frage!
- “Finally, In an amusing tangent, the SocGen strategist reveals that he is ‚genuinely getting tired of bashing the major central banks, but every day more evidence mounts that almost exactly the same debt excesses that caused The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, are present today. The UK Bank of England and US Federal Reserve deserve particular vilification for failing to remove the monetary punchbowl quickly enough – just like the 2003-2007 period, allowing grotesque debt excesses to build.‘“
bto: In der Tat ist es eine entscheidende Frage, wann es zu einer Rezession kommt. Denn dann haben wir das Problem.