“What Will Cause the Next Recession? A Look at the 3 Most Likely Possibilities”

Das ist doch eine wirklich interessante Frage. Wir alle wissen, dass es irgendwann wieder eine Rezession geben wird. Wir wissen auch, dass wir uns diese noch weniger leisten können, als die früheren, weil wir mit noch mehr Schulden operieren. Es lohnt also, auf die möglichen Auslöser zu blicken. Das tut hier die New York Times, die drei mögliche Auslöser für eine Rezession ausmacht:

  • Zunächst aber die Beruhigung: “To be clear, the economy is going gangbusters right now. The nation’s G.D.P. rose at an annual rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter, the strongest quarter of growth since 2014.” – bto: übrigens auch dank Trump.
  • “(…) many of the culprits in ending the expansion wouldn’t necessarily arise in isolation. Rather, each one could make the others worse, meaning the next recession might have multiple causes.” – bto: Aber wir wissen doch, die Ursache für die Krise ist immer der vorangegangene Boom.
  • “The risk that the Fed will miscalibrate interest rate policy and cause a slowdown or a recession is rising, in part because of the timing of the tax cuts and spending increases enacted this year. (…) the Fed may soon find itself needing to raise interest rates more aggressively to keep inflation in check. But at the same time, mainstream macroeconomic models have the economic lift from tax cuts fading sometime between 2020 and 2022. That means the Fed could be raising interest rates to slow the economy just as tax policy is also working to slow the economy.” – bto: Vor allem wirkte die Reduktion der Bilanz ebenfalls wie Zinserhöhungen, wie wir schon vor Wochen besprochen haben.
  • “The former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke put it more colorfully at a conference in June. The stimulative benefit of the tax cut is going to hit the economy in a big way this year and the next year. And then in 2020, Wile E. Coyote is going to go off the cliff.” – bto: Und dann haben wir nicht nur in den USA ein Problem.
  • “The last two recessions started with the popping of an asset bubble. In 2001 it was dot-com stocks; in 2007 it was houses and the mortgage securities backed by them. So it makes sense to look to various markets that might be getting bubbly in dangerous ways. And that search leads quickly to debt markets, both in the United States and overseas.” – bto: oder eben zur “Alles-Blase”, die wir gerade erleben.
  • Corporations have loaded up on debt over the last decade, spurred by low interest rates and the opportunity to increase returns for shareholders. The value of corporate bonds outstanding rose by $2.6 trillion in the United States between 2007 and 2017, — rising to about 25 percent of G.D.P. from about 16 percent.” – bto:  gestern hier besprochen.
  • “Essentially, businesses have been in a sweet spot for years, in which profits have gradually risen while interest rates have stayed low by historical measures. If either of those trends were to change, many companies with higher debt burdens might struggle to pay their bills and be at risk of bankruptcy.” – bto: Na, da dürfte doch die Fed wieder einspringen. Oder?
  • “If inflation were to get out of control and the Fed raised interest rates sharply, companies that can handle their debt payments at today’s low interest rates might become more strained. Moreover, with federal deficits on track to rise in the years ahead, the federal government’s borrowing needs could crowd out private borrowing, which would result in higher interest rates and even more challenges for indebted companies.” – bto: Wie wir wissen, gibt es eigentlich kein Crowding-out in einer Welt, in der beliebig Geld geschaffen wird. Siehe auch James Montier zu Staatsschulden.
  • “Many words have been devoted to the economic risks of the trade war with China and other trading partners. It is relatively easy to identify individuals and companies with plenty to lose. But exports are only about 8 percent of total G.D.P. in a $20 trillion United States economy. The direct economic cost of the American tariffs on imports and retaliatory actions by other countries announced so far should be half a percent of total G.D.P. or less, hardly enough to raise recession alarm bells.” – bto: Allerdings dürfte es auch die USA treffen, wenn die Weltwirtschaft in eine Rezession fällt.
  • “A global slowdown could also cause huge losses in American stock and bond markets, as American companies’ revenues abroad could plummet. That means a hit to Americans’ wealth and more expensive capital for businesses. It could be the thing that triggers a popping of the corporate debt bubble. (…) a trade war that causes a global economic slowdown, a market sell-off and an evaporation of business confidence certainly could (cause a recession).” – bto: So ist es. Das System ist weltweit fragil.

Fazit: “The seeds of the next downturn have almost certainly already been planted. The question is which of them will grow into a problem big enough to matter.” – bto: Ich bleibe dabei, es sind die Schulden, die das System so fragil machen.

nytimes.com: “What Will Cause the Next Recession? A Look at the 3 Most Likely Possibilities”, 2. August 2018