Warren Buffetts Börsenindikator auf rot

Vorgestern habe ich an dieser Stelle erneut auf die Bewertung an den US-Märkten geblickt. Ergänzend dazu die Bewertung mit dem Haupt-Blasen-Indikator von Warren Buffet. Zunächst in der FT:

  • “At the latest count, according to Thomson Reuters, S&P 500 companies are on course for 23.3 per cent earnings growth compared with a year ago, on the back of an 8.7 per cent growth in revenues. (…) As share prices are lower than they were 12 months ago, short-term valuations now look considerably more reasonable. The prospective earnings multiple on the S&P 500, as calculated by Bloomberg, has dropped from 20 to 17.5 so far this year, bringing it back to where it was at the beginning of 2015.” – bto: Das spricht in der Tat für eine Entspannung.
  • “And there is nothing narrow about this, despite the perception that the market is unhealthily dominated by the Faang-leading internet groups (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google). All the major 11 economic sectors have seen the Street’s estimates rise over the past month while only utilities have failed to increase revenues.” – bto: Damit ist es ein breiter Aufschwung, getragen von den guten Gewinnen. Das habe ich ja auch in einer der letzten Kolumnen für die WirtschaftsWoche diskutiert.
  • Dann jedoch dieser Hinweis: “We often hear how the Nasdaq is not as expensive as it was in the late 1990s tech boom and it isn’t. However, when we compare the Nasdaq’s market cap to say global GDP levels, it is off the scale. For all their innovation, they cannot escape the reality of limited demand.” – bto: Das bedeutet natürlich, dass letztlich auch die Bewertungen aus der Realwirtschaft gefüttert werden müssen.
  • As a proportion of US GDP, the Nasdaq Composite index is indeed now bigger than it was at the peak of the dotcom boom in 2000, suggesting that there are limits to how far the combined market cap of the Faangs can go.” – bto: was sich auch mit der Erfahrung der langfristigen Konvergenz zum Durchschnitt deckt. Niemand kann ewig wachsen, niemand ewig Überrenditen erwirtschaften.
  • “If performance compared with expectation is what matters most (which it does in the short term), then this is a truly historic quarter. The proportion of S&P 500 companies beating their forecasts (which were optimistic) is on course for a post-crisis record, at 81 per cent according to Thomson Reuters. But the pattern of positive surprises is a strictly US phenomenon and owes at least something to continuing difficulties in calibrating the effects of the tax change.” – bto: Ohne den Steuereffekt, auch das haben wir bereits gesehen, sieht es nicht so gut aus. Von hier aus wird es auf jeden Fall schwerer.

Schauen wir genauer auf das Verhältnis von NASDAQ zu BIP: “Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator is telling us that stocks are more overvalued right now than they have ever been before in American history. (…) the Buffett Indicator, while it’s not a flawless indicator, does tend to peak during hot stock markets and bottom during weak markets. And as a general rule, if the indicator falls below 80%-90% or so, it has historically signaled that stocks are cheap. On the other hand, levels significantly higher than 100% can indicate stocks are expensive.” – bto: Wenn man davon ausgeht, dass Aktienwerte letztlich durch die Gewinne getragen werden und Gewinne nur einen bestimmten Teil des BIP ausmachen können, ist es eine stimmige Überlegung.

  • For context, the Buffett indicator peaked at about 145% right before the dot-com bubble burst and reached nearly 110% before the financial crisis. So where are we today?” – bto: Hoch, kann man da nur sagen.

Quelle: Advisor Perspectives, Zero Hedge

  • “Right now we are at almost 149 percent, (…) the total market cap to GDP ratio has never been higher. It’s even higher than the 145% peak we saw during the dot-com bubble.” – bto: superteuer.
  • “(…) it does seem like Buffett himself is paying attention and agrees that the market is generally expensive. After all, the lack of attractive investment opportunities has resulted in Berkshire Hathaway accumulating nearly $110 billion of cash and equivalents on its balance sheet. Plus, Buffett has specifically cited valuation when discussing the absence of major acquisitions lately.” – bto: Denn bekanntlich liegt im Einkauf der Gewinn.

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Stocks are priced for perfection but are vulnerable to shocks”, 1. August 2018

zerohedge.com: “Buffett’s Favorite Indicator Exposes A Stock Market More Primed For A Crash Than Ever Before”, 2. August 2018