Kupferpreis: Grund zur Panik?

Der Preis von Kupfer gilt gemeinhin als Indikator für den Zustand der Weltwirtschaft. Läuft diese gut, ist der Preis hoch, vor allem getrieben von der Nachfrage aus China. Fällt der Preis, kann dies auf eine Abkühlung hindeuten. Die FT geht so weit, Panik auszurufen:

  • “Copper, however, is telling us not to worry a bit: the metal is telling us to panic. Since the first week of June, the copper price went into steep decline. In the year to date, the metal has deflated by close to 18 per cent. That is going beyond just one Chilean strike being deferred or a Chinese investor club breaking up. The metal is giving western investors a clear signal to sell risk assets or at least reduce their portfolio weighting.” – bto: Das ist doch mal eine klare Aussage. Folgt man dem Kupfer-Indikator, droht ein schwerer Sturm.
  • “We now know that the US housing market had been coming apart since the previous summer but there was still a strong market for risk assets. Too much cash seemed to be lying idle with not enough yield on offer. Of course the Fed was reassuring then, as it is now. The good news about the divergence between copper’s implicit forecast and the Fed’s is that there are still people out there who are encouraged to buy your risk position. I am not sure how many will be left by late autumn.” – bto: Der Kommentator bezieht sich hier auf die optimistische Konjunktureinschätzung der Fed und meint, solange es noch Optimisten gibt, kann man seine Positionen noch schließen.
  • “The great thing about the copper price as an indicator is the metal’s ubiquity. It is needed for wiring in online servers, for engines in delivery vehicles and for air conditioners for property sales offices. Speaking of property, the Fed has not been highlighting that market. As economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff notes: The Fed used the word strong five times in this week’s release but has not mentioned housing in the last several statements. Housing has a bigger multiplier effect than any other part of the economy. Mortgage applications have declined and sales have slowed.” – bto: Damit ist nicht nur der Kupferpreis ein Warnsignal. Auch der US-Immobilienmarkt ist geschwächt.
  • “The insight offered by copper transcends the effects of any one country’s fiscal or economic policy Mr Rosenberg adds: If the Chinese equity market was not down 20 per cent, maybe you could discount the copper price decline. But the idea of economic decoupling is a hoax. There is not a snowball’s chance in hell [the Chinese weakness] will not flow through to the US stock market. Not every Chinese economic or financial correction is followed in the west. The insight offered by copper, though, transcends the effects of any one country’s fiscal or economic policy.” – bto: Die Risiken, die von China ausgehen, hatte ich schon mehrfach in den letzten Wochen bei bto.
  • “(…) non-commercial interest in the metals markets, in particular copper, has declined sharply as risk-averse speculators have taken out their money. Take the hint. Copper tells you this is not be the time to put on more risk.” – bto: was in das Bild passt: Rezession in China, Fortsetzung der Eurokrise, …

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich),”A copper-bottomed sign: why the metal is telling us to panic”, 5. August 2018