Schock für den Getreide­markt

In den letzten Tagen habe ich meine Sicht auf die Wirksamkeit von Sanktionen vorgetragen. Sicherlich kann ich mich irren. Interessant fand ich zumindest diese Bestätigung in der FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) mit Blick auf den Markt für Nahrungsmittel:

  • “If the war is prolonged, it will impact millions of people living in places such as Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Pakistan and Indonesia. That could have political consequences. Local and imported grain shortages have been cited as one of the causes of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, as well as the Syrian civil war.” – bto: Es geht um die Preise für Nahrungsmittel und diese könnten durch die Decke gehen.
  • “It is all a reminder of the historic importance of Ukraine’s grain production. Evidence from the Nuremberg war crimes trials show the prospect of grain and grain lands were a big part of German motives for attacking Ukraine in 1941.And Lenin is credited with saying: ‘Wheat is the currency of currencies’.” – bto: In der Tat zeigen die Pläne der Nazis, dass es um die Kornkammer ging.
  • “(…) Russia and Ukraine are, or were, among the largest wheat exporters in the world. According S&P Global Platts, Russia and Ukraine together were projected to export 60mn tonnes of wheat in the crop year of 2021-2022. All Ukrainian wheat exports, and most Russian exports, pass through terminals along the north shore of the Black Sea. It is not certain when Black Sea ports can reopen. Ships are not available for chartering, and even if the owners were willing, insurance would be unavailable.” – bto: Das ist also schon ohne Sanktionen ein Problem.
  • “(…) in the 2021-2022 crop year, the US is forecast to export 22mn tonnes, less than half the Russia/Ukraine total, according to S&P Global Platts. Canada should export about 15.2mm tonnes and the EU 37.5mn tonnes.
  • “According to the US Department of Agriculture’s November World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimate, the carry-over is estimated to be 16.19mn tonnes by June 2022. That is not enough to offset the Black Sea shortfalls, even it were all available.” – bto: Es gibt wie bei Gas nicht ausreichend Reserven.
  • “(…) North African and Asian countries that depend on Ukrainian grain will be hoping the international community settles the Russian war quickly and that transport infrastructure and grain terminals are not sabotaged.” – bto: Das Risiko ist erheblich.
  • “(…) since Russia has prohibited the export of nitrogen fertiliser until April and China the export of phosphate fertiliser until at least June 2022, more grain output from other producing areas is even more problematic now.” – bto: China damals schon dabei? (Anmeldung erforderlich): „Ukraine war disrupts global market for grains”, 26. Februar 2022