Notenbanken müssen rasch han­deln, um Infla­tion zu bekämpfen

Klement on Investing, der Blog von Joachim Klement, ist immer wieder eine gute Quelle für Studien, vor allem noch verbunden mit der Dienstleistung der Auswertung, Zusammenfassung und Erklärung. Einfach googeln und abonnieren!

Jüngstes Beispiel seine Analyse zur Inflationsbekämpfung durch die Notenbanken:

  • “A new paper by Ivan Werning from MIT examined different sophisticated inflation models to check if expectations realty matter for future inflation. It is a highly technical paper, but because I am such a good person, I have gone through the trouble of reading it, so you don’t have to.” – bto: Das ist es, was ich mit dem guten Service meinte.
  • “He found that the typical assumption made in inflation models that expectations pass through to future inflation almost one for one (i.e. 1% higher expected inflation leads to 1% higher inflation in the future) is not supported by the data. In fact, the pass-through rate is probably much smaller than that and can plausibly be zero.” – bto: Das sagt, dass die Modelle der Notenbanker nichts taugen.
  • “Where his paper gets interesting is when he checks what kind of inflation expectations influence future inflation. There, he finds that short-term inflation expectations can influence future inflation as firms and households change their behaviour in pricing goods and services and paying for them. But he finds no evidence that long-term inflation expectations matter at all. A lot of the success story of central banks over the last thirty years or so rests on the assumption that it was the anchoring of inflation expectations that created low and stable inflation. And now Werning finds that none of that matters at all.” – bto: Die Notenbanken müssen also ganz nah am Puls der Erwartungen sein, wollen sie Inflation verhindern.
  • Meanwhile, short-term inflation expectations seem to matter. This presents a case for central banks to become more active in fighting inflation in the future. Short-term inflation expectations are far more volatile than long-term expectations but if they are the ones that have the potential to drive inflation, central banks need to react to rising inflation far quicker than they have done in the past. It would mean a very rapid increase in interest rates at the first signs of inflation rising above a certain threshold. And it would mean that central banks made a cardinal error in letting inflation run higher in late 2021.” – bto: vor allem, weil die Notenbanken immer betonten, dass sie nichts tun würden.
  • “This kind of thinking is also supported by an interesting study of private households in the US. That study found that US consumers mostly ignore inflation as long as it is lower than 2% to 4%. (…)  But once inflation becomes salient and large enough to feel in daily shopping expenses, consumers adjust their inflation expectations upwards. Suddenly, they project prices forward with the current inflation rate and change their consumption pattern accordingly. Again, it is short-term inflation expectations that change consumer behaviour not long-term expectations. And it requires central banks to keep inflation well anchored in the short-term because even a relatively short period of high inflation changes the behaviour of consumers which in turn influences inflation, etc. Breaking that spiral needs to be done quickly and requires a more active and aggressive central bank than what we have become used to in the last decades.” – bto: Das macht es umso teurer, die Inflation zu dämpfen.