Marx: Britischer Notenbankchef warnt vor Rückkehr des Marxismus

Klar, auch bto kommt nicht am Geburtstag von Karl Marx vorbei. Verschiedene Artikel bieten sich zur Kommentierung an. Beginnen wir mit einer Rede, die Marc Carney, immerhin Chef der britischen Notenbank zu dem Thema gehalten hat. Aufhänger sind die Folgen der digitalen Revolution.

  • “Mark Carney said that the expected automation of millions of blue and white collar jobs, bringing with it weak wage growthfor those in work, maylead to the ideas behind Communism winning new fans.”bto: Man beachte nur die Diskussion in Deutschland, getrieben von lauten Gerechtigkeitsrufen.
  • Marx and Engels may again become relevant if technology destroys jobs, forces down pay and pushes up inequalityas a new elite of highly skilled workers and the owners of high-tech machines reap the rewards of the new era, Mr Carney said.” bto: was sicherlich zu erwarten ist nach Jahren rückläufiger Lohnquoten.
  • “Productivity soared 150 years ago as the industrial revolution took hold and new technology accelerated manufacturing, yet average wages stagnated for decades as machines meant the jobs created were low-skilled.Recent years of weak wage growth since the financial crisis could indicate this 19th century experience is being repeated now (…).” bto: und vielleicht sogar noch schlimmer, wenn wir uns zugleich den Zuwachs der ungebildeten Arbeitskräfte gerade bei uns anschauen.
  • “Workers cannot generally move seamlesslyfrom one type of work to another in which they can be as productive, so the benefits, from a worker’s perspective, from the first industrial revolution, which began in latter half of the 18th century, were not felt fully in productivity and wages until the latter half of the 19th century (…) this stagnation in pay is known as the Engels’ Pause.” bto: Es gibt also einen Time-lag. Und dieser kann sozial gefährlich werden.
  • “If you substitute platforms for textile mills, machine learning for steam engines, Twitter for the telegraph, you have exactly the same dynamics as existed 150 years ago  when Karl Marx was scribbling the Communist Manifesto.” bto: und damit den Nährboden für Konflikte, die tiefergehender sein können, als damals.
  • “(…) there are also signs of  hollowing out in the job market as mid-level workers also find computers increasingly able to do specific tasks. Major law firms, for instance, are investing in artificial intelligenceto scan documents to find and analyse key facts among written material  something which is traditionally done by legions of junior lawyers and clerical staff. Banks are using large volumes of data on customer queries and complaints and feeding it into machines. These can learn the common questions that clients ask, allowing the computers to answer questions directly  removing the need to employ customer service staff. Services jobs such as driving taxis or lorries could also disappear, as self-driving technology improves.” bto: Wir haben den Doppelschlag. Die Unqualifizierten finden schlechter Jobs, weil Taxis selber fahren und Burger von Automaten gemacht werden. Die Mittelschicht, die die Unqualifizierten mit durchfüttern soll, verliert auch zunehmend den Job. Das geht nicht gut.
  • “The trends contrast with previous wavesof technological change which have given more manual tasks to machines, freeing up workers to do more productive rolesinvolving more brain than brawn (…)But the new wave of technology uses machine learning and artificial intelligence combined with enormous volumes of data which could render cognitive workers redundant.” bto: Es geht viel verloren und es kommt wenig wieder zurück.
  • Meint auch der Notenbanker: “Mr Carney said the pace of the digital revolution could also mean the new jobs created might not keep pace with the older jobs destroyed, leaving large numbers of workers stuck with skills that do not match the jobs available and so with falling pay.” bto: Wohl dem, der wie Japan jede Zuwanderung unterbindet!
  • “While a large pool of workers could see their situation worsen, the small number with skills to match the new jobs can expect large pay rises. On top of that, more profits will go to those who own the machines rather than to workers, increasing inequality further.” bto: Das wird ein Spaß. Gut, dass unsere Regierung zur Sicherung des sozialen Friedens beschlossen hat, Deutschland digital unterentwickelt zu lassen. So sichern wir Arbeitsplätze!
  • “There is a disconnect in expectations. In surveys, over 90pc of citizens don’t think their jobs will be affected by automation, but a similar percentage of CEOs think the opposite, in the number of jobs which will be materially affected.” bto: eine garantierte Enttäuschung!
  • “The result could be that workers should prepare for jobs which require a higher emotional intelligence, the Governor said, in sectors such as leisure and care, as well as practical employment creating bespoke services and products.” bto: Na, das dürfte nicht reichen.