„How The Baby Boomers Blew Up The Stock Market“

Die demografische Entwicklung spielt eine entscheidende Rolle für die Kapitalmärkte. Passend dazu ein paar Charts am Beispiel der USA:

Via Zero Hedge: „I think there’s a very simple explanation for the high stock market valuations since 1990: demographics. From 1981-2000, the baby boom generation came into their peak earning and investing years. Is it just coincidence that during that very same time we witnessed the largest stock market valuation bubble in history? No. In fact, there is a statistically significant correlation between demographic shifts like this and stock market valuations.“


Quelle: Zero Hedge

„A few years ago a pair of research advisors to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. They found that demographics (specifically, the ratio between retirement age workers to peak earning and investing age ones) is responsible for 61% of the changes in the price-to-earnings ratio of the stock market over time. Additionally, they found that when their model’s forecast p/e was off by a significant amount the real p/e consistently reverted to their forecast p/e.“


Quelle: Zero Hedge

All this means is that there is a very strong relationship between the size of the generation that is currently in its peak earnings and investing years and the valuation of the stock market. Over the past 25 years we have seen the single largest generation in our nation’s history, the baby boomers, push stock market valuations higher than they have ever been. It’s not magic; it’s simple supply and demand (mainly demand).

Zero Hedge: „How The Baby Boomers Blew Up The Stock Market“, 14. Mai 2016