Am 8. Mai 2022 hatte ich mit Otmar Issing einen ehemaligen Chefvolkswirt einer Notenbank in meinem Podcast zu Gast. Heute nun die Aussagen eines anderen ehemaligen Chefökonomens einer anderen Notenbank. Andy Haldane war bis vor Kurzem bei der Bank of England und ist ausgeschieden nachdem (ich weiß nicht, ob deshalb) seine Warnungen vor höhere Inflation nicht ernst genommen wurden. Nun hat er sich erstmals im Interview geäußert. Klingt ziemlich ähnlich dem, was gerade in der Eurozone passiert:
- “Andy Haldane, who left Threadneedle Street last summer, said high inflation will last years and the Bank is facing its “stickiest situation” since its independence as prices soar at their fastest pace in three decades. In his first major interview since leaving the Bank, Mr Haldane told the Telegraph: ‘Acting early would have saved the need for quite the degree of tightening that might now be needed to keep the lid on inflation.’ He added: ‘It was a stitch in time saves nine argument, basically.’” – bto: ein Grundsatz, den man bei der EZB auch zu vergessen droht, getrieben von der Notwendigkeit, Italien und Frankreich weiter zu finanzieren.
- “Mr Haldane had sounded the alarm on inflation in early 2021 but was the lone dissenter voting for tighter policy to rein in prices on the Bank’s rate-setting committee, while the consensus was that price rises would be transitory. Since his departure, the Bank has been forced into four back-to-back interest rate rises in a bid to curb inflation, which is expected to hit double digits later this year.” – bto: Und wir können nicht ausschließen, dass die EZB auch über zweistellige Inflationsraten präsidiert.
- “After he voted to scale back stimulus in May 2021, it took another seven months before a majority of the MPC backed tightening monetary policy by raising interest rates. ‘In some ways, I’m really the wrong person to ask about why they got it wrong,’ says Haldane, who believes early action could have lessened the need for more aggressive rate increases later. ‘Regrettably I was right about the inflation impetus. As resurgent demand bumped up against constrained supply, it struck me as more likely than not that we’d see something the likes of which we haven’t seen for several decades.’” – bto: vor allem, weil es strukturelle Gründe für höhere Inflationsraten gibt.
- “Mr Haldane predicted that inflation could run above the Bank of England’s target for years as price pressures will ‘prove more persistent’ than currently expected. He said: ‘It’s probably one of, if not the stickiest situation, that’s faced my former institution, the Bank, since I think probably independence in ‘97.’ ‘What we’re seeing is to some extent the rev’ersal of the trends we’ve seen over the preceding three or four decades. We were seeing global supply chains widen and deepen [and] economies opening up and integrating, cheaping the cost of both goods and services for people and therefore lowering if you like the global level of prices.’” – bto: Genau das gilt auch bei uns.