Die unter­schätzten Risiken des US-Zins­anstiegs

Was ist los am US-Anleihenmarkt? Normale Entwicklung, kurzfristige Störung oder fundamentales Problem?

Mohamed A. El-Erian, früherer CEO und Co-Chief Investment Officer von Pimco, dem größten Anleihenmanager der Welt, kommentiert die Entwicklung in der FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) so:

  • Last week’s unusual turbulence in US Treasuries points to a deeper issue than just the latest reading of the runes on inflation and the interest rate intentions of the Federal Reserve. The US bond market is losing its strategic footing, whether in economics, policy, or technical aspects.“ – bto: Das klingt besorgt!
  • Natürlich gibt es immer wieder kurzfristige Entwicklungen und Begründungen. Doch er sieht grundlegendere Probleme: „But my primary concern lies elsewhere: the most influential segment of the world’s financial markets is losing its longer-term strategic anchors and is at risk of losing its short-term stabiliser ones as well.“ – bto: Das wiederum wäre gefährlich.
  • The recent consensus on economic growth for the world’s largest economy has been erratic, with forecasts fluctuating between a soft and a hard landing with the occasional mention of crash and no landings as well. Expectations about the Fed’s actions have similarly fluctuated, from potential rate cuts in the near term to maintaining higher rates for a longer period.“ – bto: Diese Unsicherheit ist nach der langen Zeit des billigen Geldes verständlich.
  • Und die Fed selbst weiß nicht, wie ihr Handeln wirkt: „Federal Reserve policy is further shrouded in uncertainty, with questions over what the equilibrium level of interest rates should be, the delayed effects of a concentrated cycle of rate rises, the impact of a shrinking balance sheet and the absence of an effective framework for monetary policy.“ – bto: Sie haben keine Ahnung, was sie tun.
  • All of this occurs in a context of substantial fiscal deficits that show no signs of significant moderation, for reasons that include Congressional dysfunction and the considerable bills associated with past promises and ongoing transitions in response to critical challenges such as climate change. Consequently, the balance of risks suggests more significant fiscal pressures than originally anticipated.“ – bto: Ja, es ist so, als glaubten die Politiker an MMT.
  • This uncertainty also extends to longer-term supply and demand dynamics. Despite rising interest rates, there is genuine doubt about who will readily absorb the additional supply of government debt associated with high deficits. The Fed, which was the most reliable buyer for over a decade with a seemingly limitless printing press and little price sensitivity, is now selling bonds, reversing its quantitative easing programmes since the financial crisis with quantitative tightening.“ – bto: Das wiederum kann und muss sich ändern. Die Frage ist, unter welchem Vorwand.
  • Fortunately, the bond market still possesses some short-term stabilisers, which have mitigated even more extreme daily fluctuations. Sudden surges in yields attract buyers seeking greater certainty to lock in higher income for the long term, while sudden drops in yields translate into higher prices, allowing some overexposed investors to lighten up on any holdings where they are sitting on paper losses.“ – bto: Naja, der Trend spricht aber für steigende Zinsen.
  • No matter how you look at it, the world’s most crucial benchmark market is on an unpredictable journey with an uncertain destination.bto: So ist es. Und das sagt einer, der sich seit Jahrzehnten damit befasst.
  • I was cautioned by a bond trader that there would be moments when technical factors would override fundamentals, resulting in price volatility that could potentially destabilise both the financial markets and the broader economy. He was applying this good old-fashioned ‚tail wagging the dog‘ phenomenon to emerging markets. Without a more concerted effort to reestablish key anchors, it seems that this warning needs to be taken more seriously in the most systemic segment of mature markets.“ – bto: Und das hat Auswirkungen auf die ganze Welt.

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „US bond market is losing its strategic footing“, 17. Oktober 2023