Wie die USA die EU abhängen

Gestern haben wir die Argumente von Henrik Müller gesehen, weshalb die EU so hinter die USA zurückfällt. Doch auch die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) sieht das Problem und vor allem erkennt sie: „The gap between the economies of the US and Europe is expected to endure.“  Es bleibt also dabei.

Hier die Argumente:

  • The US economy’s lead over that of Europe, a trend first evident in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and cemented during the coronavirus pandemic, is set to last into 2024 and beyond. The IMF last week became the latest economics organisation to declare that the US economy would power ahead, forecasting an expansion of 1.5 per cent next year. This compares with IMF forecasts of 1.2 per cent for the eurozone (…)bto: Und das berücksichtigt noch nicht die Selbstzerstörung, die wir betreiben.
  • The reasons range from cyclical to structural. Relatively short-term factors such as post-pandemic stimulus and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine have played into the difference, but so have underlying divergences such as access to credit and investment trends, along with industrial composition and demographics.“ – bto: … und einer generell größeren Neigung der Politik, auf Staatswirtschaft und Vorgaben zu setzen.

Und dann die Gründe, warum es aus Sicht der FT nicht besser wird:

  • Stronger pandemic stimulus boosts spending: During the pandemic, officials on both sides of the Atlantic resorted to aggressive fiscal stimulus to stop a health crisis from turning into an economic one. However, the US did so at a greater scale. After registering a double-digit shortfall in 2020, the primary government deficit for 2021 was still a massive 9.4 per cent of GDP in the US, more than double the level of the eurozone ….“ – bto: Wobei man hier natürlich die Frage aufwerfen kann und muss, ob das eine nachhaltige Finanzpolitik ist…
  • Repercussions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: (…) European households may have been more ‚prudent‘ than their US counterparts for other reasons, including their proximity to the war in Ukraine. (…) Europe’s ‚brutal‘ energy price shock — another consequence of Russia’s invasion — has been the ‚most important‘ driver of the two regions’ recent economic divergence.“ – bto: Auch das stimmt sicherlich, wäre aber temporär.
  • A critical structural factor behind the US-European divergence is the difference in the industrial composition of the two economies. (…) The US has a booming tech sector, with successful and innovative companies such as Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft that have no European equivalents in Europe. With the US dominating artificial intelligence, that gap is likely to widen, economists warn. By contrast, Europe specialises in industries that are increasingly facing the threat of Chinese competition, such as electric vehicles.“ – bto: Es verfolgt eine Politik, die die eigene Industrie vertreibt für ein übergeordnetes Welt-Ziel, welches andere nur teilweise teilen.
  • The US is also proving more nimble in shifting its economy towards green technology. The $369bn Inflation Reduction Act has helped to incentivise investment in green technologies, with hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies and tax credits. The EU response has been slower and more complex to implement, according to many economists.“
  • „Attracted by the IRA, some European companies have shifted investment to the US, including Total Energies, BMW and Northvolt.“ – bto: Dafür spricht auch die Haltung der Politik, in Europa vorzugeben, wie es gemacht werden soll.
  • Easier access to finance has long helped the US economy, including its tech sector, to boom. More venture capital, and better developed debt and equity markets, have made it easier for US companies to fund their expansion than their European counterparts, which rely much more on banks. Europe has also endured a sovereign debt crisis and fiscal austerity — both of which have hit investment. In AI alone, venture capital investment over the past decade has topped $450bn, nearly 10 times that of the eurozone, according to data from the OECD.“ – bto: Aber wir werden es dafür besonders gut regulieren…
  • Innovation from top US universities, such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology on the east coast and Stanford on the west, has also helped.“ – bto: Wir hingegen haben keine Top-Universitäten in der EU.
  • An ageing society and weak labour market: Europe’s rapidly ageing population and weaker population growth is weighing on the continent’s public finances. It is also having an impact on the gap with the US, which — unlike Europe — has seen its working-age population expand since 2010, albeit at an increasingly slow pace.“ – bto: Ja, wir haben es mit einer deutlich schlechteren Demografie zu tun und ziehen auch entsprechend weniger Talente aus aller Welt an.
  • An ever-widening gap? With stronger investment and better demographics, the gap between the US and Europe is likely to widen further in the coming years. The US could increase its potential growth while Europe struggles to maintain the lower growth it already had (…) A European catch-up ‘seems quite unlikely’….“ – bto: Ja, wo sollte das auch herkommen?

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „How is the US economy managing to power ahead of Europe?“, 19. Oktober 2020