Margin Calls sind der Auftakt für jede Finanzkrise. Fallende Assetpreise führen zu Druck auf Investoren/Spekulanten, die ein (zu großes) Rad auf Kredit drehen. In China könnte er beginnen:
- “Fears of a clampdown on China’s swashbuckling corporate empire builders are mounting after authorities in Beijing began gathering financial intelligence on big-spending conglomerates. Banking regulators ordered lenders to report on companies that have spearheaded Chinese international expansion with hundreds of billions of pounds of debt-fuelled acquisitions in recent years.” – bto: was genau die Kriterien eines Margin Calls erfüllt!
- “The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) requested information on exposure to Dalian Wanda, which owns Odeon Cinemas and the yacht builder Sunseeker, and Fosun, which last year acquired Wolverhampton Wanderers. HNA Group, which owns two skyscrapers at Canary Wharf in London, and Anbang, an insurer that has rapidly diversified around the world, are also in the regulator’s sights.” – bto: alles auf Kredit gekaufte Assets.
- Die Märkte reagieren darauf völlig rational: “Beijing and Hong Kong stocks linked to the companies plunged as much as 10pc as news of the probe spread. Yields on bonds issued by Chinese conglomerates to fund their expansion also jumped.” – bto: “If you panic – panic first!” (Harry Schultz)
- “CBRC, said: ‚Some big companies are indeed the focus of our attention on systemic risks, because a big company has big risk exposure for banks and they could transmit to other companies.‘” – bto: genau!
- “The developments knocked Western stocks already owned by China’s conglomerates. (…) Thomas Cook, (…) Gemfields, (…) Deutsche Bank, (…) Hilton Hotels (…).” – bto: Damit fällt der Wert für alle Aktionäre …
- “Overseas deals by Chinese companies hit a record $170bn in 2016. Unconventional financing techniques and government pressures have made some Western authorities and dealmakers wary of Chinese bidders.” – bto: Klartext: Die finanzielle Stabilität ist nicht gesichert.
bto: So können Margin Calls beginnen. Je höher die Verschuldung, desto größer die Absturzgefahr.