Jetzt warnt auch der IWF vor einem Crash

Vorgestern hatte ich an dieser Stelle die Warnung aus Frankreich:

→ „French watchdog fears ‚brutal correction‘ for world stock markets“

Heute kommt der IWF dazu. Anscheinend herrscht immer mehr die Überzeugung, dass es demnächst zu Turbulenzen kommen könnte. Zero Hedge nimmt sich dieser Aussagen bewährt sarkastisch an:

  • “The Washington-sponsored IMF is out with its latest set of guesses at global growth, warning that amid rising tensions over international trade, the broad global expansion that began roughly two years ago has plateaued and become less balanced.” – bto: Da muss ich immer daran denken, dass wir noch vor weniger als sechs Monaten vom synchronen globalen Aufschwung geschwärmt haben!

Quelle: IWF, Zero Hedge

  • “The IMF reiterated its warning about the damage from a trade war, saying the outlook is more fragile and under threat. If current trade policy threats are realized and business confidence falls as a result, global output could be about 0.5 percent below current projections by 2020, It kept its forecast for 2018 global growth unchanged at 3.9 percent for now, but downgraded many major countries. bto: Deutschland mit minus 0,3 dürfte noch viel schlechter ausfallen, vor allem, wenn es wirklich zu Strafzöllen auf deutschen Autos kommt.

Quelle: IWF, Zero Hedge

  • “While the U.S. escaped thanks to a fiscal boost, the IMF cut projections for the euro area, Germany, France and the U.K. after weak – weather-related – first quarters and also lowered its outlook for Japan.” – bto: was die Spannungen im Euroraum erhöhen wird! Und damit auch die Krisenrisiken hier.

Quelle: IWF, Zero Hedge

  • “The IMF says that Federal Reserve policy is central to global financial developments. Given strong US employment and firming inflation, the Fed is on track to continue raising interest rates over the next two years, tightening its monetary policy compared with other advanced economies and strengthening the US dollar. Were the Fed to tighten faster than is currently expected, however, a broader range of countries could feel more intense pressures.” – bto: Das liegt an den hohen Fremdwährungsschulden dieser Länder!
  • Der IWF dann: “Financial markets seem broadly complacent in the face of these contingencies, with elevated valuations and compressed spreads in many countries. At the same time, however, high levels of public and private debt create widespread vulnerability. Asset prices are no doubt buoyed, not only by easy financial conditions, but by the generally still satisfactory global growth picture. They therefore are susceptible to sudden re-pricing if growth and expected corporate profits stall.” – bto: Und dann bekommen wir die deflationäre Depression.
  • “Supporting growth into the medium term—where trend growth rates are forecast to be lower for advanced economies and many commodity exporters—requires that policymakers act now to raise growth potential and resilience through reforms, while re-building fiscal buffers and guiding monetary policy carefully to keep inflation expectations well anchored on targets.” – bto: Kann das mal jemand in Berlin ausrichten?
  • “Additionally, the Washington-based global financial institution warned governments that income inequality should become a priority.“Otherwise, the political future will only darken.” – bto: Hm, aber ich fürchte, das wird genau in den Ländern passieren, die es am wenigsten brauchen …

→ “IMF Warns Of ‚Sudden Repricing‘ In Asset Prices As It Trims Global Economic Outlook”, 16. Juli 2018