Die Kritik an den deutschen Überschüssen wächst
Heute Morgen habe ich (erneut) die deutschen Handelsüberschüsse diskutiert. Diese sind nicht nur nicht in unserem Interesse, sondern machen uns international unbeliebt. Wie die Sicht von außen auf uns aussieht, zeigt dieser Kommentar im Telegraph:
- “The Bundesbank, the finance ministry, and the Council of Economic Experts, said Germany requires huge savings to prepare for an ageing crunch and a future collapse in the trend rate of economic growth, even if its current policies are distorting the global economic system.” – bto: Was wir vor allem brauchen, ist eine Politik zur Stärkung künftigen Wachstums (Investitionen in Infrastruktur, Bildung, Automatisierung) und Reduktion künftiger Lasten (längere Lebensarbeitszeit, Stopp der Zuwanderung eines künftigen Proletariats an funktionalen Analphabeten).
- “They deemed it a fundamental error to boost spending or cut taxes at this late stage of the business cycle, warning that ill-timed fiscal stimulus would destabilize Germany while doing little to help Europe or the rest of the world.” – bto: Ich habe heute Morgen gezeigt, was ich dazu denke: Wir sollten unbedingt mehr investieren. Aber eben in die Zukunft. Was wir heute machen, erzielt das Ergebnis nicht; wir verschleudern unseren Wohlstand.
- “(…) IMF officials stepped up demands for a shift in German strategy before it provokes a protectionist backlash in the US. (…) Germany’s current account surplus – 8.5pc of GDP, and the world’s largest in absolute terms at almost $350bn (£252bn) – is 4.5 percentage points of GDP beyond what can be justified by demographic arguments.” – bto: Das kann ohnehin niemand richtig berechnen. Aber es ist so oder so nicht in unserem Interesse.
- Der IWF meint: “(…) the trade surplus is unhealthy and ultimately self-defeating for Germany itself. The culprit is the enormous savings pool of companies and Germany’s uber-rich, which may require outright ‚wealth redistribution‘.(…) Berlin should ‚invest more‘ in public infrastructure to soak up its excess savings and to lift the country’s economic speed limit.” – bto: Das sehe ich so, allerdings wären meine Maßnahmen andere.
- “The US Treasury has Germany on its watch list for possible currency manipulation. It says the country should carry out ‚meaningful fiscal reforms‘ to lift demand growth and force up the ‚real exchange rate‘. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro goes further, arguing that Germany has locked in a mercantilist advantage through the structure of monetary union, which keeps the implicit Deutsche Mark ‚grossly undervalued‘.” – bto: Sicherlich ist der Euro auch nach der jüngsten Erholung verglichen mit einer D-Mark deutlich schwächer.
- “Mr Weidmann said Germany is weaker than it appears and needs a safety-buffer. The demographic dividend of the baby boom era is already over and the dependency ratio will double to one retiree for every worker. ‚Right now, Germany is still enjoying the calm. But starting from 2020, the effects of an aging society will begin to kick in strongly the effects of an aging society will begin to kick in strongly‘.” – bto: Und warum macht dann die Politik nichts zur Vorbereitung? Weidmann hat doch das Ohr der Kanzlerin.
- “Germany has been running down its public stock of investment with negative net growth for most of the last fifteen years even though studies show that that targeted investment would pay for themselves – with profit – through higher productivity over the long-term.” – bto: Doch soweit kann und will unsere Politik ja nicht denken.
- “Guntram Wolff from the Brussels think-tank Bruegel said the real cause is the ballooning net savings of German corporations, up 6.6 percentage points of GDP since the late Nineties. (…) the answer to the ‚underlying pathologies‘ of the German economy is stop companies hoarding savings by changing corporate tax law and reforming the whole regulatory system.” – bto: Genauso ist es!
