Die Inves­toren sitzen im kochen­den Wasser

Passend zu der Warnung von Jeremy Grantham vor einer Blase → Lasst uns tanzen?

noch die ebenso eindrücklich Skepsis eines der erfolgreichsten Hedgefonds-Manager der USA. Die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) berichtet:

  • “Seth Klarman, the founder of hedge fund Baupost Group (…) criticised the Federal Reserve for slashing rates and flooding the financial system with money since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, arguing that the central bank’s moves have made it difficult to gauge the health of the US economy. ‘With so much stimulus being deployed, trying to figure out if the economy is in recession is like trying to assess if you had a fever after you just took a large dose of aspirin,’ he wrote. ‘But as with frogs in water that is slowly being heated to a boil, investors are being conditioned not to recognise the danger.’” – bto: Und Anzeichen für Exzesse gibt es einige. Bitcoin, Tesla, …
  • “US stocks are up more than 75 per cent since their low in March, while spreads on corporate debt — a measure of how much extra interest corporate borrowers have to pay compared with the US government — returned to pre-Covid levels this month.” – bto: Und vor Corona waren sie schon so, als gäbe es nie ein Schuldenproblem.
  • “In the latest quarterly letter, Mr Klarman referred to the Fed as an ‘800-pound gorilla’ that has priced out investors who typically provide liquidity in moments of distress.‘The biggest problem with these unprecedented and sustained government and central bank interventions is that risks to capital become masked even as they mount,’ he said.” – bto: weil man nicht mehr auf die Risiken achtet, da diese ja keine Rolle spielen, weil die Fed immer einspringt. Oder?
  • “Mr Klarman also said the Fed’s policies had exacerbated economic inequality, referring to a ‘K’ shaped recovery that has seen ‘the fortunes of those already at the top bounding swiftly upward, while those at the bottom remain on a downslope without end’.” – bto: Auch das ist nun wahrlich keine Überraschung. Es gilt aber zunehmend.
  • “Using Tesla as an example, Mr Klarman said shares in the ‘barely profitable’ electric carmaker had soared ‘seemingly beyond all reason’, briefly making the company’s founder Elon Musk the richest person in the world. Low interest rates have made projected cash flows more valuable, he said, a point many investors have unwisely used to justify valuations on companies that sit far above historic norms.

Das liegt an dem Thema Duration: → Steigende Zinsen sind Gift für Assetpreise

  • Denn: “‘The more distant the eventual pay-off, the more the present value rises,’ he wrote. ‘When it comes to the value of cash flows, the vast and limitless future, yet to unfold, has gained considerable ground on the more firmly anchored present.’” – bto: Und das ist ein großes Problem, vor allem dann, wenn sich die Erwartungen und/oder der Zinssatz ändert. Konsequenterweise müssten die Ertragserwartungen sinken, wenn die Zinsen tief sind, weil Letztere ein Indikator für künftige Wachstumsraten sind.
  • “The Fed’s drastic measures have helped to boost economic activity and rescue ailing businesses, Mr Klarman said. ‘But they have also kindled two dangerous ideas: that fiscal deficits don’t matter, and that no matter how much debt is outstanding, we can effortlessly, safely, and reliably pile on more.’” – bto: Und dem ist nicht so.

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Baupost’s Seth Klarman compares investors to ‘frogs in boiling water’”, 21. Januar 2021