Die an­geblich so unwichtige Geld­menge … schrumpft

Angeblich spielt die Geldmenge keine Rolle. Sie habe mit der Inflation – so die Kritiker – nichts zu tun. Also solle man auch nicht auf ihre Entwicklung achten.

In diesem Blog und auch im Podcast habe ich mich wiederholt damit auseinandergesetzt und dabei mehrfach Tim Congdon zitiert. Dieser aktualisiert seine Aussagen regelmäßig. So zeigte er letzte Woche dieses Chart:

Eine klare Korrelation zwischen der Geldmenge und dem nominalen Bruttoinlandsprodukt. Sein Kommentar dazu:

  • „Obviously, the relationship is very strong and clear-cut. Nations with high growth of broad money also have high growth of nominal GDP and, unless real output growth is buoyant, they also have high inflation; nations with low growth of broad money also have low growth of nominal GDP; and so on.“ – bto: Und darauf kommt es an.
  • „In the first three or four decades after its founding in 1944 the top IMF economists paid close attention to money growth developments. Indeed, their belief in the monetary approach to the balance of payments explained the form of its data collection from member states, and the resulting database has enabled us to carry out our statistical work.“ – bto: Seither ist der „Monetarismus“ aber aus der Mode gekommen, wegen mangelnder Korrelation mit der Inflation.
  • „Bernanke, chair of the Federal Reserve from 2006 to 2014, became a Nobel laureate last year. (…) I want to give a warning. Bernanke’s academic work is mixed and eclectic, and he does sometimes refer approvingly of a money aggregate. But he is no monetarist. The contents of his latest book, on 21st Century Monetary Policy, are revealing in this respect. At one point Bernanke says that the book was written mostly in the lockdown period, which must have been the year to mid-2021. (…) I am afraid that Bernanke – in that year or 15 months or so of writing his book, from March/April 2020 – barely noticed that inflation might become a problem. On the contrary, his text has not the hint of a whisper that money growth was excessive and something had gone wrong.“ – bto: Das ist in der Tat eine der großen Überraschungen. 
  • „Too many central banks are at present led by naked emperors, busy telling each other they are fully-clothed, highly respectable and even at the peak of their profession.“ – bto: Oder doch nicht?

Denn was können wir in der FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) lesen?

  • Eurozone money supply has shrunk for the first time since 2010 as private sector lending stalls and deposits decline, in a financial squeeze that economists warn points to a further downturn ahead.“ – bto: Plötzlich ist die Geldmenge wieder relevant!
  • Und es geht noch weiter: „The money supply is one of the main metrics monitored by the European Central Bank to check the impact of recent monetary policy tightening. As lending dries up and short-term deposits shrink, economic activity is expected to slow and inflationary pressures to cool.“ – bto: Das ist doch superspannend, würde ich sagen. Bisher schaut die EZB nicht auf die Geldmenge und nun tut sie es plötzlich doch?
  • „The more dovish members of the council say inflation is already falling and more rate rises risk causing an unnecessarily painful recession. But the hawks argue that inflation of 5.3 per cent in July is still too far above the ECB’s 2 per cent target. Economists say the decision is a ‚coin toss‘ that could depend on how much inflation falls in August when that data is released on Thursday.“ – bto: Es ist eine durchaus interessante Diskussion. Ich denke auch, dass wir unter Umständen eine ganz andere Entwicklung bekommen – mit tieferer Inflation, aber nicht sinkenden Zinsen. Ist das denkbar?
  • „The ECB’s measure of overall money in the eurozone system – the M3 figure that includes deposits, loans, cash in circulation and various financial instruments – decreased 0.4 per cent in the year to July, down from growth of 0.6 per cent in June, the bank said on Monday.“
  • „The main cause of the first decline in the bloc’s money supply in 13 years was a drop in the annual growth of lending to the private sector to 1.6 per cent in July, the slowest rate since 2016. Lending to governments also declined 2.7 per cent – the biggest fall since 2007.“ – bto: Es gibt also Zeichen für eine abnehmende Nachfrage.
  • „The eurozone economy grew 0.3 per cent in the three months to June from the previous quarter, having contracted or stagnated in the previous two quarters. But gloomy business surveys point to a likely downturn in the three months to September.“

Jetzt ist sie also plötzlich wieder relevant, die Geldmenge.

Institute of Monetary Research, 21. August 2023

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „Eurozone money supply shrinks for first time in 13 years as lending slows“, 28. August 2023