“Why the market for fossil fuels is all burnt out”

Gestern habe ich an dieser Stelle meinen Kommentar bei der WirtschaftsWoche verlinkt. Darin ging es unter anderem auch um die Ölkonzerne und die Gefahr der völligen Substitution. Passend dazu ein Beitrag vom Telegraph, der Professor Dieter Helm von der Oxford Universität ausführlich zitiert. Kernaussage: Es wird – außer im Falle eines großen Krieges – nie wieder hohe Ölpreise geben. Die Highlights:

  • “If (Professor) Helm is to be believed the oil market downturn is only getting started. The latest collapse is the harbinger of a global energy revolution which could spell the end-game for fossil fuels. These theories were laughable less than a decade ago when oil prices grazed highs of more than $140 a barrel. But the burn out of the oil industry is approaching quicker than was first thought, and the most senior leaders within the industry are beginning to take note.” bto: Für die ist es noch unvorstellbarer, dass Öl billiger wird als für den Normalverbraucher.
  • “(…) the International Energy Agency (IEA) (…) warned oil and gas companies that failing to adapt to the climate policy shift away from fossil fuels and towards cleaner energy would leave a total of $1 trillion in oil assets and $300bn in natural gas assets stranded.” bto: was einer Pleitewellen und einem globalen Börsencrash nahekommt. Oder werden die dann auch „gerettet“?
  • “For oil companies who heed Helm’s advice, the route ahead is a ruthless harvest-and-exit strategy. This would mean an aggressive slashing of capital expenditure, pumping of remaining oil reserves while keeping costs to the floor and paying out very high dividends.” bto: Das sehe ich genauso. Es geht nur um maximales Aus-Cashen.
  • They’d never do it because no company board would contemplate running a smaller company tomorrow than today. It’s not in the zeitgeist of the corporate world we’re in, but that’s what they should do, Helm says.” bto: Ich denke „Zeitgeist“ ist das falsche Wort. Es ist eine Folge des Aktionärsdrucks. Sobald die verstehen, um was es geht, werden sie genau diese Strategie einfordern oder aber die Firmen werden von Private Equity Unternehmen gekauft und radikal gemolken. Bietet sich eigentlich an. Man müsste die Firma mit den höchsten Kosten im Overhead und für sonstige Projekte mit den kostengünstigsten Lagerstätten identifizieren, auf Kredit übernehmen und dann ausschlachten. (Sorry, aber die Wortwahl passt hier).
  • “(…) prices now skittering between $50 and $55 a barrel, but Helm argues that the economic drive to keep producing even as the industry shifts to a low carbon future means prices may continue to fall – forever.” bto: eben auch, weil die neuen Energien immer wettbewerbsfähiger werden.
  • “(…) the marginal cost of production in the Middle East is around $10 and the marginal cost in Russia is $20. So even at $50 you’re making a profit. And if you’re an authoritarian regime and you need $100 oil to balance the country’s budget while surrounded by radicals and insurgents, then you pump as much as you can (…).”bto: Das würde ich auch machen. Jeder Liter, den ich nicht pumpe, könnte schon morgen wertlos sein.
  • “The two major demand centres for oil are petrochemicals and transport The theory previously held in the corridors of major oil company headquarters is that increasing affluence in Asia means that soon more and more families will own two cars. As population booms the number of cars on the road could increase exponentially, requiring millions of barrels of oil to produce the petrol which will fuel the resulting automobile revolution.” bto: die nebenbei noch die deutsche Automobilindustrie killt.
  • “But (…) the burgeoning market for electric vehicles may have been underestimated and could radically change the outlook for oil demand.(…) And it’s not due to concerns over climate change – it’s city air pollution (…).” bto: siehe deutsche Diskussion.
  • “BP’s chief economist, Spencer Dale, added that the company is also preparing to study the future impact of artificial intelligence technology and 3D printing which could dramatically reduce the energy used in manufacturing and shipping parts.” bto: was nebenbei die Logistiker mit eigenen Assets killt.
  • “Helm says the low-demand trend is reinforced by one further complexity. Suppose you’re sitting in Saudi Arabia: until now you’ve been reasonably confident in assuming that if you don’t pump the oil today it will be worth more tomorrow. But if you believe in my view that oil will be worth even less tomorrow, then what do you do? You pump even more now which will take the price down even further (…).”bto: Und das werden sie tun. Zeit also für einen letzten unzeitgemäßen Benzinfresser, bevor der Umstieg Realität ist.

→ The Telegraph: “Why the market for fossil fuels is all burnt out”, 17. April 2017