IWF fordert: Schleusen auf!

Nicht, dass es überraschen würde. Der IWF – diesmal vertreten durch Gita Gopinath, die Chefvolkswirtin – fordert Staatsausgaben, um die Wirtschaft aus der Liquiditätsfalle zu bekommen. Schulden spielen keine Rolle und der “Multiplikator” wäre so positiv, dass es sich unbedingt rechnet. Wie wir in dem Beitrag von Hoisington gestern gesehen haben, könnte man auch umgekehrt argumentieren. Und dies meines Erachtens mit einer guten Berechtigung.

  • “Fighting the worst economic downturn in living memory, policymakers around the world have responded forcefully. Discretionary fiscal support of about $12tn has eclipsed previous records. Central banks, by going big with monetary easing, liquidity injections and asset purchases, have prevented financial catastrophe. Now we are in a global liquidity trap. The ascent back from what I have called ‘the great lockdown’ will be long and fiscal policy will need to be the main game in town.” – bto: So denkt die Welt, während die Deutschen die Steuern erhöhen …
  • “For the first time, in 60 per cent of the global economy — including 97 per cent of advanced economies — central banks have pushed policy interest rates below 1 per cent. In one-fifth of the world, they are negative. With little room for further rate cuts, central banks have deployed unconventional measures.” – bto: Das liegt daran, dass die Wirkung neuer Schulden immer geringer wird.
  • “It has led to the inescapable conclusion that the world is in a global liquidity trap, where monetary policy has limited effect. We must agree on appropriate policies to climb out.” – bto: Wir brauchen eine Lösung für die hohe Verschuldung, die wie ein Mühlstein auf allem liegt.
  • “There is also a greater risk of currency wars in a global liquidity trap. When interest rates are near zero, monetary policy works to an important extent by weakening currencies to favour domestic producers. With the pandemic already testing the limits of multilateralism, the world can ill-afford the escalation of tensions that competitive devaluations are likely to generate.” – bto: Klartext, die EZB kann nicht noch mal die Währung abwerten.
  • “Fiscal authorities can actively support demand through cash transfers to support consumption and large-scale investment in medical facilities, digital infrastructure and environment protection. These expenditures create jobs, stimulate private investment and lay the foundation for a stronger and greener recovery. Governments should look for high-quality projects, while strengthening public investment management to ensure that projects are competitively selected and resources are not lost to inefficiencies.” – bto: Weder gibt es die Kompetenz, noch wird man fair auswählen, sondern man wird protektionistisch handeln.
  • “The IMF’s latest projections are for economic growth to increase at a faster rate than debt service costs in many countries — and by an even bigger margin in absolute terms than before the pandemic. This implies that debt service costs could fall. That would provide room in many economies for investment in inclusive, strong and sustainable growth, without compromising debt sustainability or bond market access.” – bto: Sie glauben also an dauerhaft tiefe Zinsen. Mag sein.
  • “While all countries will need to deploy fiscal policy, the stimulus size will clearly vary. Those that entered the crisis with elevated debt and weak growth prospects will need to prioritise spending and seek financial support. Those whose debt is unsustainable should restructure as soon as possible to free up resources to fight this crisis. All countries should build medium-term fiscal frameworks to ensure debt remains sustainable, including through structural reforms, revenue-raising measures and cuts to wasteful spending.” – bto: Dabei weiß auch der IWF, dass angesichts der ungedeckten Verbindlichkeiten die Schulden nirgendwo “sustainable” sind. Und was bedeutet “financial support”? Klar: in der EU, dass die Deutschen bezahlen. Doch auch das ist nicht nachhaltig möglich.

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „Global liquidity trap requires a big fiscal response“, 2. November 2020