Deutsche: Die Treiber der US-Börse
Heute Morgen habe ich Ihnen die Analyse der Citi zum US-Markt vorgestellt. Als Nachtrag noch ein paar nette Analysen der Deutschen Bank. Kein optimistischeres Bild:
- “As Deutsche Bank notes, pull backs of 3-5% in the S&P 500 are typical every 2 to 3 months historically. The last such pull back occurred just prior to the US presidential election. The 4 month uninterrupted rally since is now well above average and if it continues for another 2 weeks will put it in the top 10% of rallies by duration.“ – bto: Natürlich kann man aus solchen Zeitreihen keine Vorhersagen ableiten. Zu denken geben sie dennoch.
Quelle: Deutsche Bank, Zero Hedge
- “Incidentally, sell-offs of 5% or more occurred on average every 5 to 6 months. With the last one occurring after the Brexit vote, the 8 months since is also well above the historical average. If the rally continues past mid-April it will be in the top 10% by duration. In size, the 19% rally since then is also well above the 14% historical average.” – bto: Auch das hat kaum Vorhersagekraft.
Quelle: Deutsche Bank, Zero Hedge
Was sind die Triebkräfte?
- “Strong equity inflows following large outflows and massive under-allocation. After stalling at the beginning of the year, US equity fund flows have resumed over the last 5 weeks. US equities have got $80bn of inflows since the election but from a slightly longer term perspective, under-allocation remains massive. Over the last two years cumulative outflows from US equities still stand at a large -$230bn compared to inflows of +$250bn to other developed market equities and +$310bn into bond funds.” – bto: Das spricht nun aber NICHT gegen Aktien, im Gegenteil.
Quelle: Deutsche Bank, Zero Hedge
- “US equity fund positioning moved from under- to over-weight though has been pared since. (…) suggesting funds may already be anticipating a modest slowdown in data surprises.” – bto: Auch dies sagt nichts gegen Aktien aus.
Quelle: Deutsche Bank, Zero Hedge
- “Buybacks remain solid but seasonal slowdown during the earnings blackout period is approaching. After a slowing in Q2 and Q3 last year, buybacks ramped up again in Q4 and the 2016 annual total ($460bn net) was in line with our forecast (Buybacks: Myths, Realities and the Outlook, Jan 2016). We see net buybacks rising in line with earnings growth and forecast $500bn in 2017. Our demand-supply model for equities points to buybacks continuing to provide steady support and by themselves imply 10% upside for the S&P 500 in 2017. However, the buyback blackout periods starting in two weeks should see the pace slow temporarily again.” – bto: Das wäre nur temporär schlecht.
Quelle: Deutsche Bank, Zero Hedge
- “DB then points out that from a fundamental perspective, the rally has kept going as data surprises skipped typical negative phase. With equity inflows and positioning both tending to follow data surprises, the fundamental reason for the long duration of the equity rally has been the unusually long period without sustained negative surprises.” – bto: Und das ist ebenfalls nichts wirklich Negatives.
- “That said, as Deutsche Bank pointed out recently, the global ‚economic surprise‘ rally is finally poised to roll over after hitting near record highs (…).” – bto: Okay, es könnten also mehr Enttäuschungen kommen.
Quelle: Deutsche Bank, Zero Hedge
Zero Hedge erinnert dann an die für den langfristigen Ertrag entscheidende Größe: “As such perhaps the best indicator of what to expect in terms of future returns may be the good, old Shiller CAPE. At 30x, the market has been at these valuations only 2% of the time in history, with future returns without fail being negative in the medium to long-run.”
Quelle: Zero Hedge
→ Zero Hedge: “‚What Has Kept The Rally Going‘: Some Thoughts From Deutsche Bank”, 5. März 2017