Stimmungsbericht zum Immobilienmarkt in China und zur ungebrochenen Bedeutung für die Konjunktur und das Finanzsystem in dem Land. Im Kern nicht ermutigend, zeigt es doch erneut, auf welch dünnem Fundament das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft ruht.
- “ Property, particularly residential property, has been very volatile, stories of vast ghost cities abound and few people have any desire to live in fourth-tier cities — the only ones where property is even remotely affordable for most of the population.” – bto: immer ein Zeichen für eine Blasé.
- “Many analysts consider the most leveraged mainland developers vulnerable to a financial blow-up at any time. Some of them, such as China Evergrande Group have debt loads of upwards of $60bn.”
- “But as so often is the case with China, the doomsayers may well be wrong. Property as an asset class has become important in China — maybe too important. It is critical to the financial system (since 70 per cent of all bank loans are backed by real estate collateral), as a source of economic growth and as a source of savings and wealth for many households. It is hard for China’s domestic economy to do well if property does not.” – bto: warum sollte es in China auch anders sein als bei uns? Immobilien waren schon immer die beliebteste Sicherheit für Banken.
- “But no asset class is as sensitive to liquidity’s soothing effect as property and there is a lot of liquidity in China. And as it always does, liquidity is buoying the property market, well beyond the first-tier cities where so many couples go through staged divorces just so that they can each buy a starter home on more attractive terms.” – bto: ein weiteres Blasensymptom
- ““Liquidity is coming from the sky,” says one Hong Kong-based hedge fund manager, noting that 40 per cent of all global money supply in recent years has come from China. So even as central banks in Japan and the US debate helicopter money for local infrastructure and other ambitious development projects, China comes closest to realising that concept as it ramps up its money printing presses.” – bto: was auch erklärt, weshalb wir mit unserem Wirtschaftswachstum alle an China hängen.
- “Mortgage loans are growing rapidly; almost one-third of the increase in loans in the first half came from the property sector, according to data from the CLSA arm of Citic Securities. The second-round impact outside China is already being felt as the prices of copper and other commodities recover.”
- “There are risks of course, among them affordability as income growth slows. A recent informal survey in Singapore showed that a majority of those polled would prefer to own a luxury residential tower there than hold 30-year US Treasury bonds. Only one investor questioned landlords’ ability to raise rents going forward. – bto: gut bei der Fragestellung hätte ich mit Blick auf 30 Jahre auch die Immobilie gewählt.
“China is not the only place where such questions are being asked.” – bto: wie wahr. Zum Beispiel in Vancouver.