“Recessions and bear markets: close relations but not twins”

Die Frage ist interessant: Braucht man eine Rezession für einen Bärenmarkt an der Börse und/oder geht eine Baisse immer mit einer Rezession einher, sagt diese also voraus? Entscheidend dürfte die Erkenntnis sein, dass Aktien auch ohne Rezession deutlich fallen können, besonders, wenn sie vorher überteuert waren. Also so wie in den USA bis vor Kurzem. Der ehemalige Chefvolkswirt von Goldman diskutiert die Szenarien:

•  “At a meeting of the investment committee of a large UK endowment last week, I watched market presentations from several money managers, (…) They regretted that there had been losses in their portfolios during October, which had been one of the most difficult calendar months in recent years. No surprises there.  They added that the October drawdowns in risk assets were probably a blip, rather than the start of an eviscerating bear market in equities and credit. The key reason for optimismwas that there was no sign of a US recession on the horizon.” – bto: Sie müssen Optimismus verbreiten, wenn sie den Kunden behalten wollen.
• “The unspoken assumption was that, in the absence of a recession, a bear market was highly improbable. Sometimes this argument is used in reverse. Many analysts assert (wrongly, in my opinion) that a recession is almost inevitable in 2020 because recessions ‚automatically‘ follow the inversion of the yield curve. They then conclude that a bear market will come along, like clockwork, a year or two ahead of the predicted economic downturn.” – bto: Also kann der Markt eine Rezession vorhersagen, wäre die Logik hier.
• “The above arguments only make sense if recessions can be forecast fairly accurately. But economists are very bad at predicting them more than a quarter or two in advance. Therefore, any market optimism to be gleaned from the argument that “there is no recession in the forecast” is on very thin ice.” – bto: Das liegt daran, dass Ökonomen (wie alle anderen die Vorhersagen machen) am besten den Trend fortschreiben, weil sie da eine hohe Wahrscheinlichkeit haben, richtig zu liegen. Gilt nicht im Abschwung, da wollen sie immer an die Besserung glauben.
• “(…) even if we could forecast recessions, the link with equity bear markets is tenuous, particularly with regard to timing. Everyone knows that equity prices, over the very long run— of several decades — tend to rise in line with dividends and therefore nominal gross domestic product.” – bto: was dafür spricht, perspektivisch mehr in Schwellenländern zu machen.
• “However, there are very wide variations around these trends. (…) These medium-term swings seem to be triggered by extrapolation of more recent changes in GDP and also by large variations in risk premiums.” – bto: ein Aspekt, den ich in meiner BCG-Zeit mit dem Konzept der Erwartungsprämie begegnet bin.
• “The arguments quoted above rely on a belief that markets can somehow ‚look ahead‘ and react to the likely onset of a recession that is still some quarters away. Therefore, bear markets are thought automatically to precede the onset of recession, which occurs independently of market behaviour.” – bto: Wenn man Börsen als sozioökonomische Stimmungsbarometer sieht, könnte man zum Schluss kommen, dass sie in der Tat “vorhersehen” können, ist doch auch eine Rezession ein sehr soziales Ereignis in der Folge vieler Einzelentscheidungen.
• “Alternatively, a bear market might actually cause the recession, through wealth effects and a tightening in financial conditions, in which case the causation is in the opposite direction. The economy is then simply lagging behind the markets.” – bto: Ich denke, dieser Effekt kommt auf jeden Fall hinzu.
• “A third possibility is that the markets and the economy areboth reacting to a third factor, such as a tightening in monetary policy. This last possibility is probably what is happening at present. The gradual increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve has been enough to raise the value of the dollar, undermine confidence in emerging markets and tighten global monetary conditions. This has finally fed back into the US stock market, (…) This process may or may not end in recession, but it is certainly already causing ‚recovery fatigue‘ in most parts of the world economy.” – bto: und vor allem, weil wir es mit einem hoch geleverageten System zu tun haben.
• “(…) it is quite clear that a period of global economic slowdown, accompanied by central bank tightening and overvalued markets, is under way. This may or may not be followed by a recession. (…) recession or not, it could be more than enough to initiate a period of high volatility and low returns in equity markets, including possibly a bear market.” – bto: Natürlich gibt es keine Prognose ab. Denn letztlich kann man strategisch richtig analysieren und dennoch taktisch verlieren.