Kohle boomt

Ich kenne Investoren, die haben frühzeitig auf Kohleminen gesetzt, in einem Fall sogar eine ganze Mine für einen Spottpreis gekauft – vor ein paar Jahren, als die Welt noch erwartete, dass Wind und Solar die Kohle bald überflüssig machen. Letztere verdienen den Kaufpreis zurzeit in 12 Monaten. Das nenne ich ein gutes Geschäft.

  • “Coal prices have been hitting all-time highs of late, though they were on the rise long before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Now, a perfect storm of soaring short-term demand and ongoing supply issues mean prices could climb still further.” – bto: So viel zum Thema, wir erzeugen Strom künftig mit erneuerbaren Energien.
  • “(…) two years ago, seaborne thermal coal prices were languishing at ~$50/t FOB Newcastle, with many industry participants believing this “dirty” fuel had begun its inexorable trudge toward retirement. It was one of the worst years on record for bankruptcies in the coal sector. At the time, forecasting a return to prices north of $100/t seemed ambitious. The bad times didn’t last. Chinese power consumption skyrocketed after its lockdowns were lifted, while demand began to pick up elsewhere as economies kicked back into gear in early 2021. Growing global energy needs were frustrated by an especially tight market for liquified natural gas and unfavourable weather conditions for renewables.” – bto: Und so wurde wieder mehr Kohle verfeuert.
  • “Demand for coal last year ended up surpassing 2019 levels by 6 per cent, according to BP’s latest Statistical Review of World Energy. China and India — the world’s two biggest producers and consumers — accounted for over 70 per cent of the extra appetite. Coal-fired power plants still fuel over a third of global electricity production.” – bto: Und der Wert dürfte dieses Jahr weiter nach oben gehen.
  • “In Indonesia [the world’s fourth biggest producer], the largest thermal coal exporter, severe flooding in Kalimantan and Sumatra led several producers to declare force majeure in Q3 . . . In Australia, thermal coal exports failed to exceed 200Mt for the second year running in 2021, having been consistently above this threshold from 2013 to 2019, owing largely to heavy flooding in New South Wales and Queensland, and elevated COVID-19 related absenteeism. Moreover, a storm that derailed a ship loader at the Port of Newcastle reduced export capacity by 1.25Mt/month from November 2020 to end-July 2021.” – bto: Es gab also mehr Nachfrage bei gleichzeitiger Störung des Angebots.
  • Prices for Newcastle coal today are at just below $400 per ton, inflated by the war in Ukraine and the EU’s subsequent ban on most Russian oil imports. Anticipating Putin’s recent move to slash supplies of already eye-wateringly expensive natural gas to countries including France, Italy and Slovakia, and ahead of a ban on Russian coal set to come into effect in August, Brussels last month gave the EU the all clear to fire up its own mothballed coal plants.” – bto: Es wäre ja vernünftiger, die Kernkraftwerke wieder anzuwerfen.
  • “Austria, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands say they have no other choice. Imports from the US, South Africa, Australia and Colombia are likely to rise as a result, and the European Commission now expects the EU will use 5 per cent more coal than previously expected over the next five to 10 years.” – bto: Das ist ein komplettes Scheitern der Energiepolitik nicht nur in Deutschland, sondern in der EU.
  • Wenig verwunderlich auch dies: “Russia, for its part, is unlikely to feel much of a hit from the EU’s ban given how many other countries still want what it’s selling. China, for one, imported 54Mtpa of coal from Russia in April, representing a near doubling of March levels and the highest level on record.” – bto: Es ist ein rationales Verhalten. Man blickt dem Westen, vor allem der EU und Deutschland fasziniert dabei zu, wie wir uns selbst zerlegen.
  • “Many of the issues that stymied coal’s supply in 2021 have yet to be resolved. Transnet, South Africa’s government-controlled rail network, has been “underfunded and underperforming for years, capping the country’s export capabilities,”(…) In the US, where prices for domestic coal are at near-decade highs, a shortage of railroad workers has led to a “historic” drawdown in stockpiles at power plants, (…)” – bto: Es ist halt ein System, in das insgesamt nicht genug investiert wurde.
  • “A lack of investment in new mines, depletion of existing mines and under-investment across the entire supply chain have been key factors in coal’s market tightness. Most mining companies are unwilling to invest in new coal capacity due to structural demand risks and the ongoing ESG overhang. The resurgence of the global coal market is real, in our view, and there could be more upside to prices this summer.” – bto: Und je mehr wir uns weigern, diese Realitäten anzuerkennen, desto schlechter für die Preisentwicklung.
  • “All of which has naturally been a boon for coal miners and the companies that transport the stuff via land and sea. Swiss-based Glencore is expected to rake in first-half coal ebitda of more than $8bn, while shares in US excavators Peabody Energy and Arch Resources are up 226 per cent and 170 per cent, respectively, in the past year.” – bto: Auch das ist eine Folge der Klimapolitik.

ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „Central banks should keep their cool on inflation”, 3. Juli 2022