Die Schulden haben den Höhe­punkt erreicht

Gestern haben wir auf die Vermögen geblickt und auf die Notwendigkeit, diese (relativ zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt) zu entwerten. Heute blicken wir auf die (noch) unangenehmere andere Seite der Diskussion: die Schulden. The Economist fasst das Problem zusammen:

  • „(…)  i > g, is a variation on the Piketty rule. It applies when nominal interest rates (or risk-free returns) exceed nominal growth. The troubling conclusion from this expression applies to debt. In an i > g world, growth in the revenues, wages or tax receipts that a debtor earns will be slower than the interest accumulating on their borrowing, meaning debt levels have the potential to explode.“ – bto: Also konkret muss man einen Teil der Zinsen aus Steuern zahlen und sie sich nicht einfach leihen.
  • „An i > g world is unfamiliar to America and most of the West. Since the end of 2009 nominal growth has been higher than nominal rates (aside from the first half of 2020, when the covid-19 pandemic crashed the economy).“ – bto: … und Italien, wo man sehr schön beobachten kann, was so ein Umfeld bedeutet.
  • „Now America is about to cross the threshold. In the first quarter of 2023 robust annualised real economic growth, of 4.5%, and troublesomely high inflation meant that nominal gdp rose at an annualised rate of 8.3%, easily exceeding nominal interest rates of around 5%. A panel of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, a data firm, anticipate that in the second quarter of the year growth will slip to just 0.4% and inflation to 3.3%. Nominal growth is forecast to be just 3.7%—well below nominal rates of around 5.2%.“ – bto: Wobei sich die Frage stellt, ob die Fed das zulassen wird.
  • „Government debts will grow faster than tax receipts. A single quarter of this might be bearable. Unfortunately, economists expect the situation to last a year or more.“ – bto: Wie gesagt, ich denke die Notenbank wird das nicht zulassen, es wird Yield Curve Control geben.
  • „Many companies hold a mix of fixed- and floating-rate debt, meaning they will also be somewhat insulated. But the maturities of their debts tend to be much shorter than those of mortgages. A large portion of corporate fixed-rate debt is due to roll over in 2024. Companies that are preparing to refinance are getting nervous. Raphael Bejarano of Jefferies, an investment bank, points out that many corporate treasurers have been spooked by just how difficult it has been to issue debt over the past year. (…) What they really fear is being unable to roll their debt over at all.“ – bto: Und das wäre ein wirkliches Desaster.
  • „The most-exposed companies include many that have been recently snapped up by private-equity barons. Private-credit loans taken on by their firms’ portfolio companies tend to have floating rates. During the last major credit cycle, in 2008, many private-equity firms were able to hang on to their overleveraged acquisitions by negotiating with lenders, which were mostly banks. This time around they will be going toe-to-toe with private-credit lenders, many of which also employ hefty private-equity teams and will be more than happy to take on overleveraged firms. In a sign of what may be to come, on May 16th kkr, a giant private-assets firm, allowed Envision Healthcare, a portfolio company in which it invested $3.5bn at a $10bn valuation in 2018, to fall into bankruptcy and be seized by its lenders.“ – bto: Nicht schön.
  • „It is far easier to swallow a high cost of capital when it is matched by high returns on said capital. And that will not be the case for much longer.“ – bto: Das ist das Spiegelbild für die fallenden Vermögenspreise.

→ economist.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): „The American credit cycle is at a dangerous point“, 24. Mai 2023