Es ist nicht so ein­fach mit der Inflation

Es bleibt spannend, ob es den Notenbanken gelingt, die Inflation wieder in den Griff zu bekommen. Blickt man auf die Entwicklung der Geldmengen, spricht einiges dafür, dass wir einen Abschwung bekommen. Allerdings ist der Geldüberhang noch erheblich, was einen längeren Zeitraum des Preisdrucks wahrscheinlich macht. The Economist diskutiert die Gründe für eine hartnäckige Inflation:

  • “Many forecasters expect that annual inflation will soon ebb, in part because of last year’s sharp increases in commodity prices falling out of the year-on-year comparison. In its latest economic projections the Federal Reserve, for instance, expects annual inflation in America (as measured by the personal-consumption-expenditure index) to fall from 5.2% at the end of this year to 2.6% by the end of 2023.” – bto: Dann müsste die Fed aber gar nicht (so stark) bremsen.
  • “(…) most economists failed to see the inflationary surge coming, and then wrongly predicted it would quickly fade. In a paper published in May, Jeremy Rudd of the Fed made a provocative point: ‘Our understanding of how the economy works—as well as our ability to predict the effects of shocks and policy actions—is in my view no better today than it was in the 1960s.’ The future path of inflation is, to a great extent, shrouded in uncertainty.” – bto: So ist es. Umso erstaunlicher ist, mit welcher Sicherheit Prognosen abgegeben werden.
  • “Some indicators point to more price pressure to come in the near term. Alternative Macro Signals, a consultancy, runs millions of news articles through a model to construct a ‘news inflation pressure index’. The results, which are more timely than the official inflation figures, measure not just how frequently price pressures are mentioned, but also whether the news flow suggests that pressures are building up. In both America and the euro area the index is still miles above 50, indicating that pressures are continuing to build.” – bto: Wenn man etwas kaufen möchte, wird immer geraten, es rasch zu tun. Handwerker binden sich für zwei Wochen an das Angebot. Es ist klar, alles wird teurer.
  • “Inflation worry-warts can point to three other indicators suggesting that the rich world is unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic norm of low, stable price growth any time soon: rising wage growth, and increases in the inflation expectations of both consumers and companies. If sustained, these could together contribute to what the Bank for International Settlements (…) describes (…) as a ‘tipping point’. Beyond it, warns the bis, ‘an inflationary psychology’ could spread and become ‘entrenched’.” – bto: Die BIZ warnt eindeutig, was aber die Frage aufwirft, ob und wie etwas dagegen gemacht werden kann.
  • “Evidence is mounting that workers are starting to bargain for higher wages. (…) All this will make wage growth hotter still. Already, a tracker for the g10 group of countries compiled by Goldman Sachs, a bank, is rising almost vertically. A measure of pay pressure from Alternative Macro Signals is similarly animated. And wage floors are rising, too.” – bto: Bei uns diskutiert man Einmalzahlungen, um eine Lohn-Preis-Spirale zu vermeiden, was übersetzt bedeutet, dass wir innerhalb der Eurozone nochmals an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit gewinnen.
  • “Faster wage growth in part reflects public’s higher expectations for future inflation—the second reason to worry that inflation might prove sticky. In America expectations for average price increases in the near term are rising fast. (…) Even in Japan, the land where prices only rarely change, beliefs are shifting. A year ago a survey by the central bank found that just 8% of people believed that prices would go up ‘significantly’ over the next year. Now, however, 20% of Japanese people reckon that will happen.” – bto: Das ist immer noch ein geringer Wert.
  • “The third factor relates to companies’ expectations. Retailers’ inflation expectations are at an all-time high in a third of eu countries.” – bto: Es gibt aber Berichte von zu hohen Lagerbeständen, weil die Konsumenten weniger nachfragen wegen der hohen Preise und weil ihnen schlichtweg das Geld fehlt. Deshalb könnte es umkippen und zu deutlichen Preisabschlägen führen: “In recent months many retailers spent big on inventories in order to ensure their shelves stayed full. Many are now cutting prices to shift stock.”
  • “The big hope for lower inflation relates to the price of goods. Fast increases in the prices of cars, fridges and the like, linked in part to supply-chain snarls, drove the initial inflationary surge last year. Now there is some evidence of a reversal. The cost of shipping something from Shanghai to Los Angeles has fallen by a quarter since early March.  In America car production is finally picking up, which could unwind some of the outrageous price increases for used vehicles seen last year.” – bto: während wir unter Umständen den ultimativen Schock haben, wenn das Gas nicht mehr fließt.

Dennoch: “Don’t be surprised if inflation roars for a while yet.” (Anmeldung erforderlich): „Why inflation looks likely to stay above the pre-pandemic norm”, 26. Juni 2022