„How Brexit caused a Wall Street sell-off“

Bekanntlich halte ich den Brexit für einen willkommenen Auslöser einer Korrektur an den Märkten, aber nicht für die Ursache. John Authers, der immer wieder sehr interessant schreibende Finanzmarktkommentator der FT, beschäftigt sich auch mit dem Rückgang an der Börse: Warum fallen US-Aktien, wenn die Briten aussteigen?

  • „(…) the S&P 500 tumbled some 5.4 per cent in two days, enough to bring the market back below its 200-day moving average. Even with Tuesday’s partial rebound, which was largely driven by a rising oil price, this remains the nastiest reverse since the sell-offs of January, which was sparked by an unexpected Chinese devaluation.“ bto: interessante Feststellung. Es droht keine neue Eurokrise, dennoch fällt die Wall Street.
  • Utilities and US real estate investment trusts dull companies which pay a regular yield and, perhaps crucially, have minimal overseas exposure have outperformed. (…) defensive stocks are now blatantly expensive.“ – bto: Das gilt aber auch in Europa. Aktien wie Nestlé sind demzufolge auch mehr ein Anleihenersatz.
  • More strangely, the stock sell-off occurred even though the Brexit backwash led to a sharp recalibration of rate expectations. (…) Such confidence in low rates is usually accompanied by strength for stock indices, but not this time.“ – bto: Und die Zinsen werden an der Schwelle zur nächsten Rezession tief bleiben. 
  • „So how did Britain’s local difficulty cause a nasty sell-off in the US? Largely, equity strategists are saying, the US was primed for a fall.“ – bto: Das sehe ich auch so. Es sinkt das Vertrauen in die Allmacht der Notenbanken.
  • „First there is valuation. By any sensible metric that does not involve comparing to the price of bonds, US stocks are expensive. This leaves no room for error if risk aversion returns.“ – bto: Die hohe Bewertung habe ich hier immer wieder diskutiert. 
  • „Second, earnings season is coming in two weeks. That means negative pre-announcements for a while, and it also means that many US companies are in a blackout period for buying their own stock.
  • „At the margin, corporates are virtually the only buyers of US stocks. Their absence, when the international economy provided an excuse to sell, deepened the weakness.“ – bto: was den Irrsinn des Marktes schön beschreibt.
  • The stronger dollar that comes with weakness for the euro and the pound can be expected to dent US companies’ earnings in due course.
  • „Finally, there is the undefinable but important issue of mood. Political observers thought that Brexit was a real possibility, but market traders, judging by their positioning before the event, did not.

„Will US stocks fall much lower? Not unless Europe moves towards a true disaster scenario, which at present looks unlikely. Low rates and incredibly expensive bonds continue to support US stocks. But the sharp reaction to what need not be such a seismic event for US stocks demonstrates the underlying weakness of the market.“

bto: Wenn jetzt das Vertrauen in die Notenbanken verlorengeht? Dann fällt der Markt. Und wie.

→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): „How Brexit caused a Wall Street sell-off“, 29. Juni 2016