Bedroht die Elektrorevolution die deutsche Automobilindustrie? (II)

Nun könnte man denken, dass würde an schlechten Nachrichten für die Industrie genügen. Doch in einer provokanten Studie kommt Tony Seba, Volkswirt an der Stanford University, zu noch radikaleren Prognosen

  • No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.” bto: Das ist doch mal eine Prognose! Sicherlich ist das zu radikal, wie wir bei der Betrachtung der einzelnen Argumente sehen werden. Dennoch dürfte die Richtung stimmen.
  • “Prof Seba’s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1m miles.” bto: Es ist in der Tat ein wirtschaftliches Argument. Wenn die Kostenvorteile so eindeutig werden, entscheidet der Markt.
  • “Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.” bto: Solange die alten Autos nicht verboten werden, wird es sie noch geben. Doch ist davon auszugehen, dass die gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz für „Dreckschleudern“ drastisch abnimmt.
  • “Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a mass stranding of existing vehicles. The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle.” bto: Das mit den „stranded vehicles“ glaube ich, das mit den selbstfahrenden Fahrzeugen noch nicht. Ich denke, das wird noch länger dauern.
  • “It is a twin death spiral for big oil and big autos (…) The long-term price of crude will fall to $25 a barrel. Most forms of shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will be stranded. (…) It is an existential threat to Ford, General Motors, and the German car industry. They will face a choice between manufacturing EVs in a brutal low-profit market, or reinventing themselves a self-drive service companies, variants of Uber and Lyft.” bto: Es ist ein Killer für diese Industrien und gerade wir in Deutschland könnten schmerzlich aus unserer Wohlstandsillusion fallen.
  • “The next generation of cars will be computers on wheels. Google, Apple, and Foxconn have the disruptive edge, and are going in for the kill. Silicon Valley is where the auto action is, not Detroit, Wolfsburg, or Toyota City.” bto: was eine sehr schlechte Nachricht ist. Anders als bei früheren technologischen Wandeln, ist es diesmal so fundamental, dass die deutsche Autoindustrie nicht mehr ihre Kompetenz ausspielen kann.
  • “The tipping point will arrive over the next two to three years as EV battery ranges surpass 200 miles and electric car prices in the US drop to $30,000. By 2022 the low-end models will be down to $20,000. After that, the avalanche will sweep all before it.” bto: was mit den Aussagen der UBS – heute Morgen – übereinstimmt.
  • What the cost curve says is that by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally, Prof Seba said.” bto: Das glaube ich nicht. Alleine schon wegen der Batterieherstellung (Engpass) und des fehlenden Netzes für das Laden.
  • “The cost per mile for EVs will be 6.8 cents, rendering petrol cars obsolete. Insurance costs will fall by 90pc. The average American household will save $5,600 per year by making the switch. The US government will lose $50bn a year in fuel taxes.” bto: Sicherlich findet die Regierung andere Einnahmequellen.
  • India is drawing up plans to phase out all petrol and diesel cars by 2032, leap-frogging China in an electrification race across Asia. (…) China is moving in parallel, pushing for 7m electric vehicles by 2025, enforced by a minimum quota for new energy vehicles that shifts the burden for the switch onto manufacturers.” bto: Es ist ein offener Markt, wo die traditionellen Anbieter keinen Vorteil mehr haben – eher den Nachteil alter Assets und Investitionen, von denen sie sich nur schwer trennen können und wollen. Die neuen Angreifer haben den Vorteil auf ihrer Seite.
  • “Experts will argue over Prof Seba’s claims. His broad point is that multiple technological trends are combining in a perfect storm. The simplicity of the EV model is breath-taking. The Tesla S has 18 moving parts, one hundred times fewer than a combustion engine car. Maintenance is essentially zero. That is why Tesla is offering infinite-mile warranties. You can drive it to the moon and back and they will still warranty it, (…).”bto: Das habe ich heute Morgen auch mit meinem Bild nochmals verdeutlicht.
  • “It has long been known that EVs are four times more efficient than petrol or diesel cars, which lose 80pc of their power in heat. What changes the equation is the advent of EV models with the acceleration and performance of a Lamborghini costing five or 10 times less to buy, and at least 10 times less to run.” bto: Das kann man an den Tesla-Modellen schön sehen.
  • “EVs will increase US electricity demand by 18pc but that does not imply the need for more capacity. They will draw power at times of peak supply and release it during peak demand. They are themselves a storage reservoir, helping to smooth the effects of intermittent solar and wind, and to absorb excess base-load from power plants.” bto: Damit revolutionieren sie nebenbei noch die Energieindustrie.
  • “Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank England and chairman of Basel’s Financial Stability Board, has repeatedly warned that fossil energy companies are booking assets that can never be burned under the Paris agreement. He pointed out last year that it took only a small shift in global demand for coal to bankrupt three of the four largest coal-mining companies in short order. Other seemingly entrenched sectors could be just as vulnerable. He warned of a Minsky moment, if we do not prepare in time, where the energy revolution moves so fast that it precipitates a global financial crisis. (…) The Basel Board may have to add the car industry to the mix. There will be losers. Whole countries will spin into crisis. The world’s geopolitical order will be reshaped almost overnight. But humanity as a whole should enjoy an enormous welfare gain.” bto: Fazit: keine Ölwerte, keine Autowerte, Vorsicht mit Ländern, die vom Automobil abhängig sind.

The Telegraph: „The end of petrol and diesel cars? All vehicles will be electric by 2025, says expert“, 14. Mai 2016