Der hohe Preis des schlech­ten Corona-Mana­ge­ments

Morgen geht es in meinem Podcast um die Wohnungspolitik, aber auch um die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Corona-Krisen-Politik. Dazu spreche ich mit Professor Stefan Kooths, einem der Autoren der Gemeinschaftsanalyse. Zur Einstimmung ein Blick von Ambrose Evans-Pritchard aus Großbritannien auf die Lage bei uns. Eine gewisse Schadenfreude kann ich den Briten nicht verdenken:

  • “Germanys five top economic institutes have sharply cut their growth forecast for Deutschland Inc this year, warning that the third wave of Covid-19 has killed off any chance of recovery until the summer.” – bto: Und das ist eindeutig die Folge der unzureichenden politischen Leistung.  
  • The move is the latest in a series of downgrades across the eurozone as the implications of slow vaccination and half-hearted control measures become ever clearer.”bto: Wir wissen das und ich wundere mich noch immer, wie stoisch die Bürger das hinnehmen. 
  • German output is expected to contract by 1.8pc over the first quarter, with growth down a sickly 3.7pc for the whole of 2021. Surging cases of Covid may have rendered even this new forecast obsolete before the ink was dry. (…) The economic report warned that each delay in reopening increases the risk of permanent scarring, with lasting erosion of Germanys productive capacity.”bto: Auch dies erläutert Professor Kooths in unserem Gespräch. Uns droht, nicht wieder auf den Vorkrisentrend zurückzukommen. 
  • The five institutes said the destructive legacy effects of the pandemic will hit just as the country goes into demographic decline, with the workforce soon shrinking in absolute numbers. Some 13m baby boomers will soon be retiring. The ratio of workers to economic dependents is on the cusp of collapse, tracking the pattern seen in Japan.” – bto: Das ist das Problem, was der künftigen Regierung und ihren politischen Wünschen massiv auf die Füße fallen wird. 
  • The report said this ageing crisis would lower Germanys economic speed limit by a percentage point over time, with corrosive effects on debt dynamics. We mustnt lose sight of debt sustainability,’ it warned. This is an unfamiliar theme for markets used to Germanys rock-solid AAA standing.” – bto: Der geschätzte Gunnar Heinsohn hat mich als Erster darauf aufmerksam gemacht. Die Demografie ist ein entscheidender Faktor, wenn es um die Schuldentragfähigkeit geht.
  • The decentralised German health system that seemed to work so well at the outset of the pandemic has turned into a slow-moving disaster a year on, with a cacophony of quarreling voices. (…) Some local health care systems are reportedly using fax machines because they lack a modern IT system. German media say doctors have been guessing peoples age from their first names to contact them for vaccination – Ursula is rare for under 60s, so is Brunhilda – because the countrys data laws prevent centralised records.”bto: Wie gern würde ich hier widersprechen können. Klar, dass mit den Vornamen war ein Einzelfall. Aber die systematische Benachteiligung Privatversicherter kann man nur mit Absicht erklären.
  • Angela Merkel at times seems like a powerless bystander, leading a fin de regime government in its agonies, unable to convince even state premiers from her own Christian Democrat family to take adequate measures. ‘It’s structural state failure. Germany needs to redesign a state that works,’ said German corporate guru, Daniel Stelter.”bto: Diese Haltung von mir ist bekannt. 
  • For now, leaders are assuming that reopening and recovery will be under way by early May and that sufficient herd immunity will be achieved to rescue the summer tourist season. France has cut its growth forecast from 6pc to 5pc, eyeing a deficit of 9pc of GDP this year, which in turn will push the debt ratio three points higher than earlier forecasts to 122pc. (…) Italy may weather the economic hit of the third wave relatively well after rushing through extra stimulus worth 2.5pc of GDP,  but this comes at the price of a budget deficit near 10pc, higher than last year.”bto: Umverteilung in der EU wird da nicht genügen. Wir brauchen einen Schuldentilgungsfonds. 
  • In a sense, delayed recovery makes it easier for the European Central Bank to throw a comfort blanket over the whole eurozone. The debt problem is purely theoretical. It becomes real once inflation returns and the ECB no longer has a legal justification for bond purchases – which today happen to be soaking up Italys entire deficit, euro for euro.”bto: was nur unterstreicht, wie dumm es ist, bei uns über Steuererhöhungen zu diskutieren. “Germany warns of lasting economic damage as Covid cases spin out of control”, 16. April 2021