Illusion ökologische Elektroautos
Keine Verbrennungsmotoren mehr lautet das Motto. Allen Ernstes behaupten Leute, Elektroautos seien ökologischer (Strom aus der Steckdose?, Batterieherstellung?, Rohstoffgewinnung?) und die einzige Möglichkeit, die Umwelt zu retten, vor allem die armen Stadtbewohner, deren Luft so gut ist, wie seit Jahrzehnten nicht. Dennoch wird mit willkürlichen Grenzwerten und zweifelhaften Messverfahren eine Krise heraufbeschworen. Deutschland ist auf dem besten Weg den eigenen Wohlstand mutwillig zu vernichten.
Um es klar zu sagen, ich habe bei bto auch mehrfach betont, dass die Elektroautos das Zeug haben, die traditionellen Autos zu kanibalisieren, aufgrund stark fallender Produktionskosten und technischer Vorteile. Dennoch ist es nicht so leicht, eine völlige Substitution anzunehmen und auch anzustreben. Das ergibt sich auch aus diesem Artikel aus der FINANCIAL TIMES:
- “To quote a battery engineer: ‚For the European auto companies to change over to electric vehicles is like turning a battleship. And it’s a battleship with a mutinous crew.‘ As the European policy world noticed with this week’s French government surrender on diesel taxes, going green is not that easy. It will become even more difficult as EV production scales up.” – bto: Das stimmt sicherlich! Die Ökoaktivisten übersehen, dass man die alten Werke etc. nicht mehr braucht, aber den Cashflow daraus, um den Wandel zu bewältigen.
- “The problems are not only with public support for decarbonisation charges but with the increased burden on raw material supplies. Attention has already been drawn to how lithium ion batteries require cobalt, the biggest reserves of which are in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The DRC government knows how important cobalt has become, and in the past week has tripled its royalty charges on the mineral. The mining companies have protested, of course, but with their huge fixed costs and few alternative sources, they will pay up.” – bto: Dazu kommen dann noch die vielen Probleme in Kongo bezüglich Rechtsstaat, Umweltschutz, Menschenrechte.
- “(…) a significant part of the DRC’s cobalt output will continue to depend on energetic children scrambling around informal ‚artisanal‘ mines. EV enthusiasts and manufacturers concerned about supply-chain audits have been working to reduce the cobalt content of batteries, with some success. However, Marc Grynberg, the chief executive of Umicore, the European battery component manufacturer (and cobalt buyer), suggests further progress will not be easy. ‚While you hear about designing out cobalt, this is not going to happen in the next three decades. It simply doesn’t work.‘“– bto: tja, was dann? Am besten gehen wir zu Fuß und fahren Fahrrad. Ist ja auch das Ziel der Politik.
- “(…) when policy people and the more optimistic auto manufacturers speak of reducing European dependence on the DRC and those cobalt-mining children, they have in mind increasing the proportion of nickel in EV batteries. Nickel is a problem. (…) Readily mined nickel sulphide deposits are being depleted, however, and over the next decade we will become dependent on the more common lateritic ore deposits. These are relatively easy to refine into low-purity grades, say for stainless-steel kitchenware. To make battery-grade nickel from lateritic ore, though, miners hope to use a tricky process called high pressure acid leaching (HPAL). If you do not do things just right, you have sulphuric acid under high pressure coming out of the machine.” – bto: Klingt nicht so überzeugend unter Umweltschutzaspekten. Ganz zu schweigen von den Arbeitsbedingungen.
- “Try not to be around when that happens. Did I mention the process is energy intensive? A Russian nickel refining engineer refers to the HPAL manufacturing complex as ‚the Bermuda Triangle of death‘. The good news from the point of view of European pro-EV environmentalists is that HPAL nickel will be produced, when the process is perfected, in places such as Indonesia. The bad news is that the Indonesians are increasingly bothered by acidic mine waste and are becoming even less tolerant of foreign mining companies.” – bto: Ich denke, Toyota hat recht, wenn sie nicht auf völlige Elektrifizierung und zudem auch auf Wasserstoff setzen. Es ist noch lange hin, aber es wird kommen.
- “On top of that, an EV-centric European auto industry will be dependent on key foreign technologies if it is to meet its production goals. Most European vehicle manufacturers use Asian battery cell technologies, though they can handle the assembly of cells into battery packs. Yes, the foreign partner transfers the technology for the current generation of battery cells. However, while the European manufacturer grapples with a rapid, policy-driven production ramp, the Asian battery cell partner is leaping into the following generation.” – bto: Und bei uns baut der Staat eine Batteriefabrik???
- “There is a precedent. Korean companies took 20 years to move from production based on Japanese battery technology to producing their own designs. For now, battery manufacture requires production art, which can only be acquired with experience. It would be better to take more time to develop the science of how batteries work. That would require years of work with sophisticated equipment, and the policy requirement is for a rapid switch from fossil fuel engines. In any event, Europe and the rest of the world will depend on diesel power for large trucks for the foreseeable future. The politics, the supply-chain difficulties and the requirement for better science all suggest that the European battery push is too frenetic to work well.” – bto: Macht nichts, lasst uns unsere Schlüsselindustrie möglichst rasch platt machen. Nützt zwar der Umwelt null, aber wir fühlen uns gut.
