Zinssteigerungen sind für Schuldner ein Problem: Beispiel UK
Zinssteigerungen sind unangenehm für Schuldner. Die FINANCIAL TIMES (FT) rechnet am Beispiel von Großbritannien vor, wie die Erhöhung der Zinsen auf die Staatsfinanzen wirkt. Die logische Schlussfolgerung: Der Staat wird den Zinsanstieg in Kooperation mit der Notenbank verhindern. Doch schauen wir zunächst auf das Problem:
- „In recent years, governments have exploited rising investor demand for bonds with returns that are linked to inflation, issuing increasing amounts of such instruments. (…) An example of this can be seen with the UK, which pioneered this form of bonds, known as ‚linkers‘, in the 1980s and is struggling to restore fiscal credibility after its abortive ‚mini‘ budget in September.“ – bto: Gleichzeitig haben die Notenbanken Staatsanleihen gekauft und durch über Nacht fällige Reserven ersetzt. Das erhöht ebenfalls die Anfälligkeit für Zinssteigerungen.
- „The UK’s Office for National Statistics has flagged the rising cost of linkers, noting that index-linked gilts accounted for £55bn of the UK’s £92bn interest payment bill in the year to August — an outsized contribution considering that they are 25 per cent of outstanding gilts. Meanwhile, the US is set to pay $150bn in interest this year on its portfolio of Treasury inflation-protected securities, half the amount it pays on nominal Treasury bonds, according to the US Treasury website. This is even more remarkable, given that just 9 per cent of US government bonds are Tips.“ – bto: Das sind erst einmal nur Indikatoren, die zeigen was passiert und weshalb ein Zinsanstieg verhindert werden muss.
- „We estimate that for the £2tn of UK gilts, annual interest costs are set to rise to £110bn a year in 2024, and stay at around £100bn annually for a decade. That’s double UK government forecasts and doesn’t take into account any additional borrowing.“ – bto: Und es schlägt auch auf die anderen Anleihen durch.
- „(…) the market does not believe that the MPC will control inflation in the medium term. Break-even inflation is currently around 4 per cent per annum for 10 years, and we use this to compound the value of linkers over time, and thus estimate an annual interest cost. For maturing debt, we assume that this is replaced by new nominal gilts paying the current 10-year yield as a coupon — now 3.91 per cent. The combination of persistent inflationary uplift and higher refinancing costs will keep UK interest payments at an annual £100bn for years to come. This shows the impact of persistent inflation and government fiscal errors on the long-term financing position of the UK. Other countries with index-linked debt beware.“ – bto: Nicht nur die!
