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Zeit, aus den Bondmärkten auszusteigen?

In den letzten Wochen kam es zu den ersten größeren Abzügen aus Fonds, die auf Hoch-Risikoanleihen spezialisiert sind. Zeit wird es, wie wir gestern gesehen haben! Ambroise Evans-Pritchard diskutiert im Telegraph ob wir die Zinswende gerade erleben:

  • “The credit markets have sharp antennae. They issued early warning alerts four to eight weeks before each episode of stress over the last 20 years, although with several false alarms along the way.” – bto: Ja, so ist das mit den Indikatoren. Zuverlässig weiß man es immer erst hinterher.
  • “The shake-out in the US junk bond market last week had an ominous feel for traders and may finally mark the top of the post-Lehman boom in corporate credit. The exuberant reach for yield is nearing its limits.“ – bto: Und wenn da jemand „Feuer“ schreit, ist die Panik da.
  • “The metric watched by markets – the Bank of America Merrill Lynch high yield option-adjusted spread – has jumped 40 basis points to 3.8pc over the past two weeks. Blackrock’s iShares HYG fund, the biggest exchange traded fund (ETF) for junk debt, fell to a seven-month low on Friday.” – bto: Wenn nun die echten Profis aussteigen sollten, wäre das natürlich ein deutliches Warnsignal.
  • Auch in Europa: “The iTraxx Crossover index measuring bond risk in Europe jumped 25 basis points to 248 over five trading sessions.” – bto: Gerade bei uns sind die Risiken völlig aus dem Ruder gelaufen.
  • “Institutional investors are holding back 4.7pc in cash and are not yet fully committed. Keep your nerve until it falls to 4.2pc, says Bank of America.” – bto: Das sind die mit dem „Ikarus-Trade“ (hatten wir bei bto) und die glauben, es geht noch bis nächsten Sommer gut.
    → US-Börsen wie der Ikarus?
  • „The initial trigger for the latest jitters was a shift at the Bank of Japan, which is having second thoughts about purchasing $4.5bn (£3.4bn) a month of ETFs ­under its quantitative easing programme. The BoJ’s statement said “extreme measures” aimed at boosting inflation endanger financial stability and could do more harm than good.” – bto: In Japan ist die Inflationsrate derweil die höchste der Industrieländer. Arbeitskräfte sind knapp.
  • „A parallel shift is under way at the European Central Bank where several governors suggested a total halt to QE as soon as next September. The ECB has already announced that it will halve bond purchases from €60bn to €30bn a month at the start of 2018. Ireland’s central bank chief Philip Lane said there are signs that inflation is ‚snapping back‘ and warned that the ECB may have to tighten sooner than people expect.” – bto: Da die EZB jedoch nicht gegen Inflation kämpft, sondern für die zahlungsunfähigen Schuldner, wird sie das nicht machen.
  • „The coup de grace came from Washington where the Senate Republicans rejected the House bill on tax reform, demanding a delay in corporation tax cuts until 2019. (…)The plan to cut corporation tax from 35pc to 20pc has been a crucial prop for Wall Street. S&P calculates that a 1 percentage point fall in busi­ness taxes adds 1.2pc to equity prices, ceteris paribus. The open question is to what degree investors have pocketed the tax cuts in advance, leaving no margin for disappointment.” – bto: Könnte es also doch sein, dass Aktien mal wieder fallen?
  • „What events in Asia, Europe, and the US all have in common is a hint that governments can no longer be relied on to keep propping up asset markets.” – bto: Sie dürften es aber nach dem nächsten Einbruch wieder machen.
  • „Serious sell-offs in high-yield credit typically see spikes of at least 120 basis points, three times last week’s move. But nobody knows where the pain threshold lies in the post-QE world. The structure of global debt has been distorted by emergency policies. The interest rates of the G4 central banks are minus 1.5pc in real terms. The quartet has purchased $11 trillion of assets since 2009.” – bto: Man denke an die Studie über die Zinsentwicklung der letzten 700 Jahre aus der letzten Woche. Wenn die Zinsen wirklich steigen, könnte es zu einer raschen Bewegung kommen, die sich angesichts der hohen Verschuldung verstärkt.
  • „(…) the ECB has been soaking up investment-grade bonds, pushing buyers into junk debt. “People are buying anything they can still find with yield and nobody wants to get left behind. Money is still pouring in. We’ve smashed all previous records this year for issuance in Europe,” (…)“Actually it is not even high-yield any more because there is no yield at all. We have never been in a situation like this before and at some point there will be crisis (…).” – bto: Das stimmt zweifellos, die Frage ist nur wann. Bin ja gespannt, wie die Jamaika-Profis darauf reagieren werden.
  • „The bubble has been astonishing. Yields on the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch euro index for junk debt dropped from 6.4pc in early 2016 to 2pc just before the latest sell-off. This is lower than yields on 10-year US Treasuries, usually regarded as the benchmark safe-haven asset for the world.” – bto: Natürlich könnte man jetzt noch denken, der Euro wird gegenüber dem US-Dollar aufwerten. So man wirklich glaubt, der Euro habe eine Zukunft.
  • „Veterans say the market moves over recent days recall the micro-tremors in late 2006: the first nagging concerns about US subprime and a local eruption in Iceland, against a backdrop of eurozone hubris. The party was to run for another half year but the best was over.” – bto: Dass das Beste hinter uns liegt, bedarf keiner großen Analyse. Spannend ist, wie es weitergeht.

→ The Telegraph: “Is it time for investors to leave the party after the latest bond market