“Why the end of austerity would be an earthquake for markets”
Eine interessante Überlegung in der FINANCIAL TIMES zu den Folgen von Helikopter-Geld. Die Kernthese: Sollte es wirklich dazu kommen, käme dies einem Schock für die Kapitalmärkte gleich. Die “sicheren” Anlagen in Dividendenwerten und Anleihen würden plötzlich an Attraktivität verlieren und stattdessen die zyklischen Werte profitieren:
- The resilience of markets is standing out as a defining feature, with setbacks shortlived and ultimately providing investors with a buying opportunity.” – bto: Das ist richtig. Rückblickend konnte man nur kaufen.
- “(…) the past 12 months have been marked by bouts of turmoil and predictions of gloom that ultimately fall short.” – bto: ob China, Brexit oder Fed. Es war immer nur ein kurzzeitiger Einbruch, wie auch von mir in meiner letzten WiWo-Kolumne vor der Sommerpause festgehalten.
- “In plain performance terms, we have a record high for the S&P 500, while the FTSE All World index has climbed 18 per cent from its nadir in February.” – bto: wobei man sich schon fragt, wie dies mit der schwachen Realwirtschaft korrespondiert.
- “One obvious reason for the ebbing resonance of market shocks is the easy money policies of central banks, that subdue both interest rates and market volatility.” – bto: wie in der letzten Woche vorgerechnet.
- “Eight years of austerity and a prolonged fall in central bank borrowing rates and bond yields have failed to deliver sustained economic growth. Hence the rise of populist politics, while calls for fiscal stimulus are steadily growing.” – bto: Wenn es wirtschaftlich besser ginge, wäre es sicherlich kein Thema.
- “Of the 160 fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch this month, 39 per cent expect ‚helicopter money‘ in the next 12 months.”
- “(…) fiscal stimulus calls for buying cyclicals, rather than looking at dividends and long duration bonds.” – bto: Das wäre in der Tat der Auftakt für eine deutliche Rotation, so die Märkte an den Erfolg glauben!
- “Given the extreme hunt for yield in recent years, the prospect of major fiscal expansion, particularly if undertaken by leading economies in unison, would amount to a significant shock for plenty of portfolios.”
- “A decisive flick of the fiscal switch to loosen austerity would herald a stampede from the best performing sectors of global markets.” – bto: raus aus den Dividenden und Rentenpapieren in die zyklischen Werte. Stiegen die Zinsen an, wäre das ein erheblicher Schock. Wobei ich immer noch denke, dass die Schulden das nicht möglich machen.
- “The ensuing surge in market volatility would prompt investors to sell their holdings based on risk management models – known as a value-at-risk (Var) shock – in order to avoid losses.”
- “(…) we have felt the Var tremors before, notably during the summer of 2013 with the taper tantrum and then, from last April, when the 10-year German Bund yield rose from just above zero per cent to near 1 per cent by early June.”
- ”The potential for sparking a massive rush for the exit from what has been a relentless search for yield cannot be ruled out. One can only hope that markets simply experience another tremor and not the big one.”
