“We are Witnessing the Development of a ‚Perfect Storm‘”
Mark Faber hat in einem Brief das nachfolgende Interview empfohlen. Eine sehr interessante Sicht eines Kapitalmarktveteranen auf die heutige Lage:
- “There will be a reversion to the m (…) I believe the standards in the industry are being compromised; monetary policy has so totally distorted the capital markets. You are now into the eighth year of a period that is unprecedented in the likes of human history.” – bto: Das kann a) noch lange so bleiben, ist b) Lesern von bto bekannt und c) außergewöhnlich gefährlich.
- “The closest policy period to what we have now would have been between 1942 and 1951, when the Fed and Treasury had an accord to keep interest rates low. (…) But that is the only time we’ve had a period of nine years of manipulated, price-controlled interest rates.” – bto: Das senkte damals erfolgreich die Schuldenquoten, hat aber diesmal nicht funktioniert.
- “The (…) reversion to the mean could be distorted, for a period of time, by this type of monetary policy action. But I do not believe the economic laws of gravity have been permanently changed.” – bto: Damit ist er im Kern bei den Kollegen von GMO, die ich auf bto häufig zitierte.
- “When you have a market that is distorted by zero interest rate policy, David Tepper said it very well many years ago, ‚Well, you’ve got to ride it‘ It’s a rocket ship that’s going up.” – bto: Wir müssen alle tanzen, solange es gut geht.
- “If you are fully invested in the right areas, you have a shot at out-performing. However, if you are an active manager who has a valuation discipline, given the valuation excesses in the capital markets now and that have been developing for the past several years, then an elevated level of liquidity would be held, if you were allowed to do so. As such, you will likely underperform the market.” – bto: Geht mir auch so. Man ist weder voll investiert, noch setzt man auf die wenigen Zugpferde.
- “Now we have a clueless Fed, in my opinion, that has never known what a bubble is beforehand. It is accentuating one that has been developing as a result of its policy insanity of QE. Markets are going straight up predicated on it.” – bto: Sie wird auch diesmal behaupten, unschuldig zu sein.
- “(…) since 2007, indexing or passive activities have risen from approximately 7 % to 9 % of total managed assets to almost 40 %. As you shift assets from active managers to passive managers, they buy an index. The index is capital weighed, which means more and more money is going into fewer and fewer stocks.” – bto: Das erklärt, warum man den Index selten erreicht, außer, man setzt auf diese Gewinner.
- “2If you didn’t own the nifty 50 stocks in the early 1970s, you underperformed and, thus, money continued to go into them. If you were a growth stock manager in 1998-1999 and you were not buying ‚net‘ stocks, you underperformed and were fired. More and more money went into fewer and fewer stocks. (…) In each case, this trend did not ended well.” – bto: Und er wird dann – wie hier diskutiert – den Abschwung beschleunigen.
- “(…) ETFs and index funds will be destabilizing influences, because fear will enter the marketplace. (…) Investors will hit the ‚sell‘ button. All you have to ask is two words, ‚To whom?‘ To whom do I sell? Index funds and ETFs don’t carry any cash reserves. The active managers have been diminished in size, and most of them aren’t carrying high levels of liquidity for fear of business risk. We are witnessing the development of a ‚perfect storm.‘” – bto: weshalb man sich entsprechend sturmfest aufstellen muss.
- “(…) when you have central banks deploying capital and their cost of money is zero, they destroy the capital-asset pricing mechanism; they destroy comparability; the distortions continue. As a dedicated contrarian, the last place I want to invest money is where governments are deploying the capital because they are so totally distorting the market.” – bto: Man kauft dann nicht die Aktien und Wertpapiere, die die Zentralbanken kaufen.
- “(…) it is far more difficult for a value manager to hold liquidity today in light of the policies that are being deployed. These are the worst fiscal and monetary policies in human history. If I were still professionally managing money, despite my background of pain-and-suffering from being redeemed, my liquidity allocation would be north of 60 % today.” – bto: was durchaus sicher ist. Vorausgesetzt, die Liquidität ist nicht bei einer unsicheren Bank.
- “When you are in an environment where the lead entity, the Federal Reserve, has its foot on the scale and is distorting the information coming out of the capital markets, where interest rates can go to zero, what is the proper hurdle rate for budgetary or capital allocation decisions? These actions distort the price comparison or discovery process in the capital asset-pricing model. This is highly disturbing.” – bto: und damit alle Bewertungsmodelle!
- “I am at my lowest exposure to equities since 1971. They represent less than a fraction of one percent. Liquidity is north of 65%, all in Treasury-type securities, nothing beyond a three-year term. I do not trust what is going on fiscally or monetarily, and I’ll circle back on this in a moment. The balance is in rare fully paid-for physical assets.” – bto: Das ist wirklich sehr vorsichtig, aber vermutlich berechtigt.
- “We are into a period of expanding deficits. We are hitting a time where the entitlements are worsening in terms of their funding status. We are in a decade that is unprecedented from anything that we’ve seen before with monetary policy and fiscal policy. Why on Earth should I allocate capital into a system where the scales are completely manipulated, price discovery is distorted, and the Fed doesn’t have a clue what’s going on?” – bto: gute Frage!
- “At some point, in no more than one to two years, the Fed would likely panic and panic big time, and we will see QE on steroids. We will see monetary inflation. (…) I am managing my estate in a hedged fashion because what we are going through is without any precedent in human history. How can anybody have confidence that their particular view is the right view?” – bto: Deshalb rechne ich auch immer mit beiden Szenarien: Inflation oder Deflation.
bto: Wie gesagt – ein interessantes Interview.
