Was tun, wenn die geldpolitische Bombe nicht mehr wirkt?
Die Frage liegt auf der Hand: Was machen wir, wenn die Geldpolitik nicht mehr wirkt. Sie kann also noch Geld in die Märkte pumpen, aber dort bewirkt es nichts? Der Frage geht Ambroise Evans-Pritchard im Telegraph nach. Die Highlights:
- “The world’s central banks have exhausted almost all their usable ammunition under existing rules yet still failed to calm markets or to unfreeze critical parts of the global financial system. This moment what we all feared. The danger now is that global recession – it is no longer ‘if’, we are weeks into it already – will morph into something more intractable: a deflationary depression with a wave of defaults that breaks the capitalist system as we know it.” – bto: Ich denke, wir schaffen gerade den Konkurs ab. Wir ändern also das System, keiner geht pleite, alle haften für alles und jeden und damit für nichts. So zumindest meine Sicht.
- “Either the rules are changed fast or we risk uncontrolled global liquidation. The US Federal Reserve must be unshackled to act as a buyer-of-last-resort for the corporate debt markets, for great swaths of the credit system, and for Wall Street equity indexes. The European Central Bank must acquire powers to act as a genuine lender-of-last resort for eurozone sovereign states. (…) This must be backed by a fiscal blitz even greater than in 2008-09, with pledges to “socialise” the drastic losses faced by industry and private firms. What was done for banks last time despite misconduct must now be done for others.” – bto: Und es wird getan werden. Daran besteht aus meiner Sicht nicht der geringste Zweifel.
- “There must be tax holidays, sweeping state guarantees for firms, credit forbearance, a temporary suspension of mortgage payments (pushing out the maturity), and moral hazard be damned – all under the umbrella of financial repression.” – bto: Wir müssen in die Speichen des Deleveraging greifen. Und das fest.
- “What has happened over recent days is not a matter of panic. (…) It reflects the collapse in earnings and the spread of insolvency risk. It is a rational response to the self-evident lack of coherent political leadership or a functioning G20 world community that is capable of containing either Covid-19 or the economic chain-reaction that might unfold. As a result, forced sales are occurring on a huge scale across interlinked markets for mechanical reasons.” – bto: Zwangsverkäufe waren aber auch die Folge der Spekulation auf Kredit.
- “Europe will discover quickly – perhaps within days – that the sticker-plaster job by EU leaders after the EMU debt crisis has resolved nothing. The failure to establish some form of fiscal union during the Draghi reprieve leaves the euro system exposed to the sovereign bank ‘doom loop’ of 2011-12.” – bto: Ich denke aber, die EZB wird rasch einen Kurswechsel vollziehen.
- “Only the Fed can print US currency and act as the superpower backstop for the world’s dollarised financial system. Nobody was sure whether they still existed in Donald Trump’s Washington. Now we know they do. (…) Some measures require changes in US law. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said over the weekend that he would seek to revive the Fed’s suspended emergency powers. (…) The Fed’s hands are tied for now. (…) The Fed can no longer rescue a single bank in trouble (there must be at least five). Nor can it issue blanket guarantees of bank debt and money market funds, or issue instant loans to stem stress in commercial paper and asset-backed securities.” – bto: Wird alles über Bord geworfen werden und das zu Recht.
- “(…) Congress will have to go even further and let the Fed buy company bonds, ETFs, and other private assets, as the ECB or the Bank of Japan are allowed to do. In extremis, the Fed may have to soak up some of the $3.4 trillion tranche of BBB-rated bonds perched precariously above junk and at risk of a roll-over funding shock.” – bto: Und wie ich gestern diskutierte, liegt hier ein ganz großes Risiko.
- “Will any of this happen? Yes, because the American political class has woken up to the potential disaster coming their way. Donald Trump likes fiscal and monetary largesse. He will not hesitate. Europe is another matter. The EU fiscal package so far is less than 0.3pc of GDP. This does not move the macroeconomic needle. Nor does the ECB’s extra bond purchases of €120bn, spread over nine months, a tiny fraction of what the US is doing.
- “The most vulnerable states are being left to fend for themselves. They happen to be Italy and Spain, both now in the grip of hair-raising lockdowns; as well as Portugal and Greece, with double-digit reliance on tourism. The old ‘PIGS’ are being thrown under the bus again.
- “(Italys) economy has all but collapsed. Its debt ratio could be nearing 145pc of GDP by the end of the year. There are ever louder warnings that it will need a massive rescue from the eurozone bail-out fund (ESM), which would require the approval of the German Bundestag and the Dutch Tweede Kamer, and turn into a political nightmare. (…) Either Germany and the northern creditor states bite the bullet and agree to debt pooling, joint bond issuance, fiscal integration, and a pan-EMU bank deposit insurance – with all this implies for the evisceration of parliamentary democracy in Europe’s nation states – or world markets will again lose faith in the viability of monetary union.” – bto: Und die Frage ist, wäre es da nicht besser, die EZB poolt die faulen Schulden?
