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Was den Aufschwung beenden könnte

Der Aufschwung ist schwach, aber alt. So stellt sich die Frage, ob sich die Erholung fortsetzt und wir die Eiszeit endgültig überwinden oder es doch zu einer erneuten Rezession und entsprechenden Korrekturen an den Finanzmärkten kommt. Eine Frage, der auch die FT nachgeht. Sie versucht, mögliche Auslöser für ein Ende der Aufwärtsbewegung zu identifizieren:

Schwacher Aufschwung 

  • “The global economic recovery that started amid the gloom of the financial crash in March 2009 is about to celebrate its 8th birthday. In the advanced economies (AEs), the GDP growth rate during this recovery has averaged only 1.8 per cent, well below normal, but unemployment has dropped from 8.1 per cent to a still fairly high 6.1 per cent.” – bto: einer der Gründe für den Erfolg Donald Trumps.
  • “(…) the volatility of GDP growth has fallen to the lowest levels for four decades since 2014.” – bto: weil es eben kein natürlicher Aufschwung ist.
  • “This slow but extremely steady period of expansion has of course been accompanied by much lower interest rates, which have proven terrific for asset prices. The index of total equity returns in the AEs has tripled since the bear market ended.” – bto: was ebenfalls zu politischer Unzufriedenheit führt.

Geringes Rezessionsrisiko in den nächsten 12 Monaten

  • “At present, econometric models that attempt to assess recession risks suggest that these risks are exceptionally low over the next 12 months. Furthermore, the growth rate in the US and other AEs seems, if anything, to be breaking upwards.” – bto: Zumindest die Börsen glauben dies anscheinend.
  • “This may be because the headwinds that have held growth down for so long – excessive debt, a malfunctioning banking system, extreme risk aversion, low capital investment – may finally be fading away.” – bto: Da, muss ich gestehen, folge ich nicht ganz. Die Verschuldung ist immer noch zu hoch, die Banken in Europa fern von saniert und einen Investitionsboom, der die Produktivität deutlich steigert, vermag ich auch nicht zu sehen.
  • “It is common for euphoria to set in just when the economic and financial cycle is nearing a peak.” – bto: was man nicht oft genug wiederholen kann!

Drei Szenarien für ein Ende des Aufschwungs

  • “There are many ways in which this cycle could end, of which three need to be particularly watched over the next couple of years. These endings correspond to the main theories that describe the condition of the developed world at present:
    • demand side secular stagnation
    • positive demand shocks combined with supply side weakness, leading to inflation pressure
    • a downturn in the financial super cycle.” – bto: spannend. Ich denke, es wird eine Kombination aus allem, da die fundamentalen Fakten für schwaches Wachstum sprechen (säkulare Stagnation), die Krise die Produktionskapazitäten beeinträchtigt (Inflation) und der Finanzzyklus enden muss.

Nachfrageeinbruch und Fortsetzung der säkularen Stagnation

  • “Demand side secular stagnation: (…)Adherents believe that there is a high probability of recession in the next two or three years. (…) it would be connected to a slump in final demand that cannot be corrected by monetary policy (…) fiscal policy might be too slow to react, or might be hamstrung by high public debt ratios. One possible cause of this downward shock to global demand would be a trade war (…).” – bto: Es sieht zurzeit nicht danach aus, dennoch ist die Gefahr real.

Sprunghafte Inflation und steigende Zinsen

  • “A different end to the cycle could occur if it turns out that inflation is not as subdued as most economists, and the major central banks, are assuming. (…) If inflation rises, it will more likely be because strong growth in global demand is maintained, while the supply side in the AEs fails to respond. Assuming productivity growth remains extremely subdued, then the current rate of growth is unlikely to be compatible with stable inflation for very long.” – bto: Nur wenn Inflation kommt, können und werden die Notenbanken die Zinsen nicht gleich erhöhen, zu hoch sind die Schulden. Also muss es zu deutlicher Inflation kommen, die die Flucht in Sachwerte verstärkt und deshalb rasch sehr hohe Werte annehmen kann.
  • “(…) interest rates are still 200 basis points below the level recommended by a standard Taylor Rule, without even taking account of the stimulative impact of the Fed’s bloated balance sheet on the monetary stance. The Fed may be behind the curve.” – bto: Das muss sie auch sein, wenn es darum geht über höhere Inflation die Schuldenlast tragbar zu machen.
  • “(…) it is possible that inflation could rise rather suddenly, as it did in the mid 1960s, in which case the FOMC would be forced to slow the economy precipitously, even risking a recession. In fact, that would be the ‚standard‘ way for the cycle to end, and it is becoming somewhat more probable.” – bto: Ich gestehe, dass ich noch skeptisch bin. Allerdings muss man sich als Investor auf jeden Fall darauf einstellen.

Ende des globalen Finanzzyklus

  • “(…) implosion in the global financial cycle, leading to a period of deleveraging and rising risk aversion in markets. The idea here is that there is a long term cycle in financial markets that may operate independently from the business cycle in the real economy. Claudio Borio, the main proponent of this view, suggests that the expansion phase of this financial cycle may now be rather advanced in the US, and he has for a while been concerned about extended credit cycles in China and many other emerging economies.” – bto: was auch Gegenstand der Diskussionen bei bto war und ist. Gerade China ist ein Risiko.
  • “An implosion in any of these credit cycles could take the US and global economy down with them, especially in the context of unfinished repairs to bank balance sheets. However, while Borio’s warnings about financial excess deserve to be taken extremely seriously, international financial regulators are finding it hard to discern near term signals of extreme financial dislocations in the US or the emerging markets at the present time.” – bto: Oben schreibt die FT noch, die Banken seien wieder gesund, hier nun, dass die Bilanzen noch saniert werden müssen. Und dass die Aufsichtsbehörden nichts sehen, ist doch angesichts der Erfahrungen von 2008 wirklich beruhigend!

Ein Versuch der Quantifizierung

  • “The table below shows some subjective conclusions (…). We assign a low risk of only 10 per cent to an end to the US economic and financial cycle within 12 months. The probability of an end to the cycle occurring within 24 months is much higher, at 30 per cent. (…) we currently assign a higher probability to a hostile Fed, because of rising inflation risk, than to either of the other two stories. This has implications for the possible behaviour of equities and bonds during any downturn – and of course for the appropriate policies that might extend the cycle beyond two years.” – bto: Das kann dann nur heißen, alles fällt!

Quelle: FT

→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): “Three ways the economic and financial cycle could end”, 19. März 2017