“US boom hides a brewing storm – and the clouds could extend to Europe”
Ein weiterer Blick auf die Konjunktur in der Welt und die möglichen Folgen für die Entwicklung hier in Europa. Roger Bootle ist Chef von Capital Economics, einem angesehenen Forschungsinstitut:
- “(…) Americans must have been giving thanks for the current strength of the US economy, which is growing at about 3pc, while unemployment stands at a 49-year low. Moreover, the labour market is still tightening and wage growth is picking up.” Aber: “(…) underneath the surface you can detect signs of trouble ahead. Recent weakness in the stock market has several underlying causes, and growing anxiety that the good times cannot last is one of them.” – bto: Es ist ein Boom, der vom billigen Geld und vielen Schulden getrieben ist. Per Definition kann der nicht gut enden.
- “(…) the scale of this fiscal expansion has ensured that, despite the strong economy, the federal government deficit is worryingly high. It is currently 3.8pc of GDP but it will rise to about 5pc in a few years. (The UK’s deficit should be just over 1pc this year.) Moreover, the ratio of federal debt to GDP looks set to rise relentlessly to almost 100pc within 10 years.” – bto: Solange die USA die Weltwährung stellen, mag man sich fragen: Wo ist das Problem?
- “It is easy to be lulled into a false sense of securityby the low level of these interest rates, even after the Fed’s anticipated further action. Instead, you should pay attention to the increase in rates. Over the last two years, real (ie inflation-adjusted) two-year Treasury bond yields have increased by 2.5pc. Increases of this magnitude were also experienced in the late Eighties, the late Nineties and the mid-Noughties. In each case a recession ensued.” – bto: Das stimmt natürlich. Und wir wissen, dass der Zinsanstieg deutlich höher ist, wenn man das Schrumpfen der Fed-Bilanz mit einrechnet.
- “You can already see some signs of weakening in those parts of the US economy that are particularly interest rate-sensitive. Home sales have recently softened and capital investment spending by companies has weakened. By the end of next year the rate of economic growth should be falling back quite markedly, and in 2020 the growth rate should be a good deal lower than it is currently.” – bto: Eine Rezession in den USA bei boomender Weltwirtschaft ist ein schwer vorstellbares Szenario.
- “Does this economic outlook mean the Fed is making a mistakein its interest-rate policy? Not necessarily. It is all a matter of balancing the risk of higher inflation against the risk of weaker growth. (…) With the labour market tight and the rate of wage increase rising, and in the context of interest rates being low by historical standards, the Fed seems bound to take the precautionof moving rates up in order to head off the inflationary danger.” – bto: Vielleicht will sie auch etwas Luft aus den spekulativen Märkten nehmen?
- “For us here in the UK, we will, of course, suffer some ill effects from a US slowdownin 2019/20. But if and when we have accomplished Brexit successfully, uncertainty will be dispelled and confidence will return. We may be able to weather the storm blowing in from the US pretty wellcompared to other large economies.” – bto: Das ist gut möglich, allerdings dürfen wir die hohe Verschuldung der US-Haushalte nicht vergessen.
- “(…) the eurozone will suffer the pain without any beneficial offsetting effects. It is notable that the recent reasonable pickup in eurozone growth is fizzling out. Growth this year is likely to be just under 2pc. If a US slowdown, coinciding with a slowdown in China, produced a slower world economy, never mind a serious downturn, then European growth rates would dip.” – bto: Das sehe ich genauso. Wobei die EZB dann halt das Geld vom Himmel regnen lässt.
- “That does not matter much when, as in the case of Germany, you are doing pretty well. But when, like Italy, you have spent 20 years in near-stagnationand are currently on the brink of recession even when the world economy is growing nicely, a global slowdown could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Assuming, that is, that this Italian camel’s back has not been broken already.” – bto: Klar ist, dass der Stress dann erst so richtig kommt für den Euro.
