Und täglich wachsen die Schulden
Einerseits könnte ich den Blog einstellen. Es ist alles beschrieben und gesagt. Andererseits geht es mit ungebremster Geschwindigkeit weiter: Schulden, Schulden, Schulden und sollte es zum Minsky-Moment weiterer Schulden kommen, bekämpfen wir die Krise mit noch mehr Schulden! Es kann nur mit einem Krach enden. Sorry. Das mit dem Timing ist zugegebenermaßen das Problem. Damit muss ich leben.
Nun rechnet der IWF also – erneut – vor, dass wir es mit den Schulden (zu) weit treiben:
Fangen wir mit Zero Hedge an, weil da die Bilder so einfach hierher zu kopieren sind:
- “(…) the IMF once again sounded the alarm on debt, only this time on the public side of the ledger, warning about – what else – excessive global borrowing, and noting that with a total of $164 trillion of debt, or 225% of global debt to GDP (…).
- “Here we should note that the IMF’s definition of debt is clearly different from that of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which last week calculated that global debt had hit $237 trillion in debt or 318% debt/GDP.
Quelle: Zero Hedge
- “Whatever the differences in debt calculating methodology, both agencies can agree on one thing: debt has never been greater and it once again poses an existential threat to the so-called “coordinated recovery”, which of course, only exists thanks to said surge in global debt.” – bto: ich denke es ist einfach: IIF rechnet die Schulden des Finanzsystems mit, der IWF nicht. Es ist auch eine Doppelrechnung. Aber nicht zu 100%, weil der Leverage des Finanzsystems natürlich nicht neutral ist.
Quelle: IWF
Und zeigt dazu noch, dass diese so hoch sind, wie noch nie in Friedenszeiten in den Industrieländern:
- “In that vein (…) the fund warned there is an urgent need to reduce the burden of debt in both the private and public sectors to improve the resilience of the global economy and provide greater firefighting capability if things went wrong: ‚Fiscal stimulus to support demand is no longer the priority,‘” – bto: Tja, ich denke, dass wir es zu weit getrieben haben.
- “(…) in a blog post posted alongside the Fiscal Monitor report, IMF director Vitor Gaspar said that the ‚United States stands out‘ and singled out the US for criticism, warning was the only advanced country that was not planning to have a falling burden of debt because tax cuts would keep public borrowing high.” – bto: Ich denke, dieser Abbau der Schulden wird nicht stattfinden, weil wir im nächsten Abschwung alle Schleusen öffnen.
- “‚We urge policymakers to avoid pro-cyclical policy actions that provide unnecessary stimulus when economic activity is already pacing up,‘ Gaspar said; what he really meant was ‚Trump, stop what you are doing before you lead to a debt funding crisis, that finally bursts the global debt bubble.‘” – bto: Das ist sicherlich eine zutreffende Beobachtung.
- “The IMF said that the interest burden has doubled in the past ten years to close to 20% of taxes, an escalating cost which ‚reflects in part the increasing reliance on nonconcessional debt, as countries have gained access to international financial markets and expanded domestic debt issuance to nonresidents.‘” – bto: Das muss man sich mal auf der Zunge zergehen lassen! Die Zinslast hat sich verdoppelt, obwohl die Zinsen deutlich gesunken sind!
- “As a result, the IMF again recommended that countries raise taxes and lower public spending to decrease annual borrowing and get the burden of debt on a firmly downward path now that there is no need for fiscal stimulus. The few exceptions to that advice included Germany and the Netherlands, which the IMF said had ‚ample fiscal space‘ to boost public investment in infrastructure and enhance the long-term resilience of their economies.” – bto: Da hat der IWF aber die latenten Verbindlichkeiten bei uns für Target2, Migration, Alterung und Renten.
Auch die FT bringt es gut auf den Punkt: “The fund was concerned that ‘an abrupt deleveraging process‘ in the private sector could trigger another financial crisis as borrowers tightened their belts simultaneously. ‘In the event of a financial crisis, a weak fiscal position increases the depth and duration of the ensuing recession, as the ability to conduct counter-cyclical fiscal policy is significantly curtailed,‘ the fund said. With the global economy expanding strongly, it recommended that countries such as the US stop using lower taxes or higher public spending to stimulate growth and instead try to reduce the burden of public sector debts so that countries have more leeway to act in the next recession.” – bto: So ist es!
→ ft.com (Anmeldung erforderlich): “IMF sounds alarm on excessive global borrowing”, 18. April 2018
