“The Next Wave of Debt Monetization Will Be a Disaster”
Auf diesen Artikel aus der THE EPOCH TIMES hat immerhin der Präsident des ifo Instituts, Clemens Fuest, auf Twitter hingewiesen. Dann kann ich ihn auch bei bto besprechen. Die Thesen sind bekannt und entsprechen weitgehend meinen auch hier gemachten Feststellungen:
→ Klimaschutz: Kampf gegen die Eiszeit
- “According to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the IIF (Institute of International finance), global debt has soared to a new record high.(…) This has happened in the middle of an unprecedented monetary experiment that injected more than $20 trillion in printed money into the economy and lowered interest rates to the lowest levels seen in history.” – bto: Wie sagte ich doch: Die Notenbanken pressen einen Ballon unter Wasser, den sie zugleich mit immer mehr Luft aufpumpen.
- “If this monetary experiment has proven anything it’s that lower rates and higher liquidity are not tools to help deleverage debt, but to incentivize it. Furthermore, this dangerous experiment has proven that a policy that was designed as a temporary measure due to exceptional circumstances has become the new norm.” – bto: Sie können auch gar nicht mehr anders.
- “Despite the largest fiscal and monetary stimulus in decades, global economic growth is weakening, and the productivity growth of leading economies is close to zero. Money velocity, a measure of economic activity relative to money supply, thus, goes down. (…) Low rates and high liquidity are perverse incentives to push the crowding-out of the private sector by government; they also perpetuate overcapacity due to endless refinancing of non-productive and obsolete sectors to lower rates, and the number of zombie companies—those that cannot pay their interest expenses with operating profits—rises.” – bto: So ist es. Es führt zum Niedergang der Realwirtschaft und macht damit die Schulden noch weniger tragfähig.
- “(…) as monetary history has always shown, when central planners face the evidence of low growth, poor productivity, and higher debt, their decision is never to stop the monetary madness but to accelerate it. That’s why the message that the ECB and IMF are trying to convey is that there’s a savings glut, and the reason why negative rates aren’t working as expected is that economic agents don’t believe rates will stay low for much longer, so they’re holding on to investment and consumption decisions. This is complete nonsense. With household, corporate, and government debt at still elevated levels and close to pre-crisis highs, the notion of excess savings is ludicrous.” – bto: Ich habe schon 2013 geschrieben, dass die sogenannte “säkulare Stagnation” nicht die Folge von zu viel Sparen ist, sondern zu vielen Schulden!
- “There’s massive inflation in financial assets and housing, but there’s also a clear rise in inflation in non-replicable goods and services versus replicable ones, which means that the official consumer price indices (CPI) misrepresent the true cost-of-living increase.” – bto: das, was ich mit “handelbar” versus “nicht-handelbar” umschrieben habe.
- “When central planners blame economic agents for a nonexistent savings glut and repeat that there’s no inflation when there’s clearly a lot, they also tend to add a conclusion: If households and corporations are unwilling to spend or invest, then the government must do it. (…) There’s no evidence of a lack of capital expenditure, let alone solvent credit demand. The private sector is simply not investing and spending as much as governments would want them to, which, among other reasons, is because the private sector does suffer the consequences of taking a higher risk when the evidence of debt saturation is clear to all those who risk their capital.” – bto: konsequent in die Ecke manövriert durch immer mehr Schulden mit immer weniger (positiver) Wirkung.
- “(…) the next wave of central bank action will be the full monetization of government excess. The excuse will be the so-called ‘climate emergency’ and ‘green new deals.’ Yet governments don’t have better or more information about the best course of action for energy transition. By artificially picking winners and losers, ignoring the positive forces of competition and creative destruction to deliver faster innovation and progress, governments tend to delay, not accelerate change.” – bto: Wer daran zweifelt, möge auf die deutsche Politik blicken.
- “The ECB, always happy to repeat the mistakes of Japan with an even stronger impetus, is likely to start new programs of debt monetization for green projects and claim it’s a different, radical, and new measure (…) The result is easy to predict, unfortunately. Governments hate two things that disruptive technologies do: reduce consumer prices and generate lower tax revenues. Yes, disruptive technologies are, by definition, disinflationary both in CPI and in tax receipts. Furthermore, disruptive technologies also demolish government control of the economy.” – bto: Deflation ist normal in einer funktionierenden Marktwirtschaft.
- “If the previous $20 trillion stimuli have delivered more debt, less growth, and rising discontent among the middle class that always pays for government experiments, the next episode à la Elizabeth Warren will likely be the last step toward full Japanization. If anything, what are already prudent spending and investment decisions from the private sector are likely to be even more conservative, and the resulting negative productivity growth will mean lower salaries and employment, but higher debt and a larger government footprint in the economy—which is, in reality, the ultimate goal of these massive plans.” – bto: Man höre nur auf die Ziele der grün-linken Umweltretter hierzulande.
→ theepochtimes.com: “The Next Wave of Debt Monetization Will Be a Disaster”, 22. November 2019
