“The greed-fear cycle is alive and kicking”
Es ist so banal: Nach neun Jahren Aufschwung an der Börse ist doch klar, es geht nur weiter. Wer bis jetzt noch nicht verstanden hat, dass die Börsen von den Notenbanken auf immer neue Höhen geführt werden, gestützt von der zusätzlich weltweit starken Konjunktur, der hat nun wahrlich keine Ahnung. Oder?
Schön, dass es immer wieder – eigentlich recht banale – Erinnerungen gibt, dass dem nicht so ist!
- “I think there are two bubbles. We have a stock market bubble and we have a bond market bubble,” said former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan on Bloomberg Television last month, just six days before the Dow Jones index plunged 1,175 points, the largest one-day absolute fall on record. But markets bounced back (…).” – bto: Klar, es war doch eine super Kaufgelegenheit, dachten viele!
- “Markets are back in fairyland again. For many investors, the regret of missing out on what may well be a once-in-a-generation bull market overshadows any anxiety about the next crash. Animal spirits are all too evident.” – bto: Natürlich, denn diesmal ist es die größte Blase von allen: die offizielle Notenbankblase!
- “Nothing seems to deter investors: the Brexit vote, fears of trade wars after the latest wave of tariffs on steel and aluminium by President Donald Trump, two North Korean missiles flying over the Japanese land mass, the debt python constricting the global economy, the rollercoaster ride of the cryptocurrencies, covenant-lite loans, IPOs with no voting rights — the list goes on. For all we know, risk is being stacked up like a wedding cake.” – bto: weil wir dazu getrieben werden, auch aus Angst um das Finanzsystem.
- “Far less attention is being paid to how, behind the euphoria, the current investment regime is being reshaped by (…): the rise of populism, as we enter a new era of beggar-thy-neighbour populist policies; the unwinding of quantitative easing, as the central bank stimulus approaches the point of diminishing return; and the end of deflation, as a synchronised global recovery starts to boost employee earnings and commodity prices.” – bto: Das mit der Inflation müssen wir noch sehen, aber es stimmt. Wir erleben eine Zeitenwende in einem Eiszeit-Umfeld.
- “(…) investors continue to engage in crowded convictionless trades, despite red flags. Psychological biases that make investors act in ways contrary to their best interest are at work.” – bto: Und diese Biases sind weit verbreitet.
- “The first one is recency bias: uncritically projecting the here and now into the future. Quantitative easing has provided an epic joyride, such that many investors now believe that central banks may well continue to control volatility and keep a floor under asset prices, no matter what they say in public.” – bto: Ja, das ist das, was man von überallher hört.
- “(…) bandwagon effect: doing things because others are doing them. This faith in the wisdom of the crowd ignores Warren Buffett’s famous advice: be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” – bto: Ich weiß aus eigener Erfahrung, wie schwer das fällt!
- “(…) confirmation bias: consciously searching for information that confirms investors’ points of view, while tuning out contrary opinions.” – bto. Das kann man mir natürlich auch vorwerfen. Nicht zu unrecht bearbeite ich die Themen auf bto!
- “Investing is as much about emotion as reason. The scale was predicted to tip towards reason, after investors were put through the ringer by two punishing bear markets in the short span of seven years in the last decade. But the age-old greed-fear cycle is as alive as ever. One lesson we learn from history is that investors don’t learn from history.” – bto: So ist es. Ich denke aber, der nächste Sturm wird so verheerend, dass er Jahrzehnte prägend wirkt.
→ FT (Anmeldung erforderlich): “The greed-fear cycle is alive and kicking”, 16. März 2018
